France vs Morocco 2026 World Cup RO16 preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Atlas Lions seeking to avenge 2022 loss

Victory for Les Bleus would maintain their status as the tournament’s outstanding side and keep alive a genuine shot at a third World Cup title. 

For Morocco, eliminating the reigning runners-up on American soil would surpass even their 2022 heroics and send a second African nation into the semi-finals for the first time.

Whichever side wins a rematch of their 2022 semi will advance to the final four, where either Spain or Belgium await.

France and Morocco meet again at the World Cup, four years after their 2022 semi-final showdown in Qatar, with a place in the last four of the 2026 World Cup on the line.

Having rolled up their sleeves and survived Paraguay's 'dark arts' in the round of 16, France have now won five straight matches, scoring 13 goals in the process. 

A potent front four of Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola has been perfectly supplemented by Désiré Doué, whose neat footwork secured that crucial spot-kick against Paraguay. 

Les Bleus are now unbeaten in 12 competitive matches (W11, D1), winning the last seven in a row, and stretching that run to eight for the first time since 2004 would make them just the third nation ever to reach three consecutive World Cup semi-finals. 

Manager Didier Deschamps also makes history as he takes charge of a record-equalling 25th World Cup match, and he is now targeting his 20th win on football’s biggest stage.

However, notching that landmark here is no foregone conclusion given that three of France’s non-penalty shootout World Cup defeats this century have come against African opponents (3/6).

Morocco will definitely be hoping that curse strikes again, especially against the side that knocked them out four years ago in Qatar.

The Atlas Lions were ruthless in their last-16 victory, putting three unanswered goals past co-hosts Canada from just four shots on target to progress.

Once again, they have gone five games unbeaten to start a World Cup before running into Les Bleus, as they continue to break new ground for African football.

However, they come up against their toughest test yet as they face this marauding France side for the seventh time, having lost four of six meetings so far.

Making it past Les Bleus would mark just the second time an African side has reached the semi-final of the World Cup after Morocco themselves four years ago, and a ten-match unbeaten run since the Africa Cup of Nations final (W7, D3) certainly suggests they’re capable of upsetting the odds here.

These sides have met six times in total, with France winning three, drawing two and losing none. 

The most significant meeting is the most recent: France beat Morocco 2-0 in the 2022 World Cup semi-final at Al Bayt Stadium, ending the Atlas Lions’ historic run. 

Prior to that, the sides drew 2-2 in a friendly in November 2007.

*Odds sourced from SportyBet and are correct at the time of publishing. Always gamble responsibly.

To start things off, we're backing the tournament favourites to get the job done and reach a third straight semi-final, with their electric front four simply proving too strong.

With 14 goals in their previous five games, Didier Deschamps' side have been at their merciless best in the final third, and with goalkeeper Mike Maignan leading the way in the Golden Glove conversation, there isn't much to worry about in that department either. 

Morocco are no mugs, reaching the semi-finals in 2022 and avoiding defeat in their last 33 matches.

However, coming up against the frontrunners to be world champions brings a different threat altogether, so it's little wonder France are odds-on to progress.

It should be an excellent match between two top teams, but with so much attacking talent, France are tipped to win inside 90 minutes and send their valiant opponents home.

France have been in stunning form in the final third, scoring 14 goals in five games. 

They’ve also registered an average of 8.5 shots on target per game, a tournament-high at the time of writing.

Les Bleus have cleared the Over 2.5 Goals bet in four of those five matches. The only exception was their grinding 1-0 victory over Paraguay’s low block.

A key factor in Morocco’s unbeaten record and continued success has been their miserly defence. However, they showed in their 3-0 win over Canada that they carry a serious threat going forward too. 

The probability of 3+ goals being scored is just over 50%. That’s why there is value in this bet.

It's impossible to talk about France without honing in on the phenomenon that is Kylian Mbappé.

As he continues to charge towards a second consecutive Golden Boot, we're tipping him to have at least three shots on target here.

The 27-year-old is only one strike away from becoming just the second man to score 20 World Cup goals (after Lionel Messi, who achieved the feat last week).

And having scored in four of his five games so far, he certainly won't be short of confidence. 

Favourite to win both the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball, Mbappé is averaging well over three shots on target per 90 this summer, with four in each of his nation's two knockout games so far.

And with yet another World Cup semi-final in his sights, he'll be keeping Yassine Bounou very busy in the Morocco goal.

So 3+ shots on target for Mbappé is our last selection, as he continues to terrify defences all over the world, breaking plenty of records in the process.

With his winning goal against Paraguay, Kylian Mbappé moved onto seven for the tournament – level with Erling Haaland and one behind Lionel Messi in a star-studded Golden Boot race – and he will wear the armband once again.

Now on 19 World Cup goals, the Real Madrid striker is also locked in a fascinating battle with Messi to top the all-time scoring charts.

His head coach is unlikely to make changes to a settled starting XI, as Manu Kone may continue to deputise for Aurelien Tchouameni in midfield.

Joining Marcus Thuram on the sidelines, the latter was absent from the Paraguay game and has subsequently missed several days training with a thigh injury.

Morocco's main fitness doubt concerns Bayern Munich new boy Ismael Saibari, who impressed during the group stage but was withdrawn early in their last-16 clash.

His hamstring strain could mean that Rahimi fills in up front, while it remains to be seen whether centre-back Chadi Riad is fully fit after making way for Redouane Halhal last time out.

After setting up two goals against Canada, key creator Brahim Diaz holds the all-time African record with four World Cup assists; he has also posted 10 goal involvements for his country this year.

Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe

Bounou; Hakimi, Diop, Riad, Mazraoui; El Aynaoui, Bouaddi; Diaz, Ounahi, El Khannouss; Rahimi

France are the standout pick to progress, with Kylian Mbappé’s seven goals in this tournament underlining a clinical edge Morocco will struggle to contain.

Nevertheless, this is still a tough game for France, potentially their toughest test to date as Morocco, technically, are unbeaten in their last 34 matches across all competitions.

However, the last team to beat Morocco at a World Cup was France when the sides met in the 2022 semi-final, and we think history will repeat itself with the Atlas Lions failing to avenge that loss.

Correct score prediction: France 2-1 Morocco