Paraguay vs France 2026 World Cup RO16 preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Les Bleus too much to handle

The South Americans became the first team to knock Germany out on penalties in a World Cup fixture, while Les Bleus eased to victory over Sweden in their round-of-32 clash.

A quarter-final clash against either Canada or Morocco will be the reward for the victors of this meeting.

Paraguay will hope to claim another famous scalp at the World Cup when they meet tournament favourites France in the last 16 on Sunday.

La Albirroja proved many doubters wrong with a hard-fought performance to record one of the biggest knockout upsets in modern history. 

Indeed, there were tears of disbelief and euphoric celebrations after Jose Canale smashed home the decisive penalty to secure a memorable 4-3 shootout triumph over Germany in Monday’s last-32 contest, following a 1-1 draw in 120 minutes of engrossing action.

Prior to the tournament, there were 31 places in the FIFA World Rankings between Germany (10th) and Paraguay (41st) – a chasm that now stands as the fourth-largest ranking deficit ever overcome in a World Cup knockout tie since 1994.

Paraguay are now one win away from equalling their best-ever World Cup run of 2010 when they reached the quarter-finals, a feat that looked highly unlikely when they lost their opening game of this tournament 4-1.

Gustavo Alfaro’s side have rallied since, conceding only once across three unbeaten matches (W2, D1).

However, their defence will need to be at its best once more here as they take on a France side that have scored at least three times in five successive matches.

France are one of only three teams, along with Mexico and Argentina, that have won 100% of their games at the 2026 World Cup and have scored a tournament-high 12 goals in the process.

Much of that devastating firepower has been driven by a frightening front four featuring Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, the former of whom netted twice in a comfortable 3-0 victory over Sweden in the last 32 on Tuesday.

Regarded as favourites in our World Cup betting guide and ranked No.1 in the world by FIFA, France have won nine of their last 10 international matches across all competitions (L1).

They have also prevailed in 15 of their last 18 World Cup fixtures (D2 L1) since the start of their triumphant 2018 campaign.

This will be the sixth meeting between the pair across all competitions and a third clash at the World Cup.

France won the previous two meetings at the finals, winning 7-3 in 1958 and 1-0 in 1998, the latter coming with Deschamps as captain in Aimé Jacquet’s side.

Les Bleus remain unbeaten against Paraguay (W3 D2), though this is the first meeting between the two sides since a 5-0 friendly victory for France in June 2017.

France also haven’t lost a FIFA World Cup game, excluding shootouts, against South American opposition since a 2-1 loss to Argentina in the group stage back in 1978. They are unbeaten in 11 such matches since then (W6 D5).

*Odds sourced from SportyBet and are correct at the time of publishing. Always gamble responsibly.

Firstly, and unsurprisingly, we’re starting our bet builder with a France win in 90 minutes. 

While Paraguay's win on penalties over Germany was one of the moments of the tournament so far, we just don't see a scenario where they pull off another upset when France are in this kind of form.

Deschamps’ men are hitting their absolute peak at the perfect time, recording five consecutive victories. They’ve lost just one of their last 15 matches, registering a staggering 13 wins in that run. 

In contrast, while Paraguay are currently on a three-match unbeaten run, they lost two of their previous three outings. And having scored just three goals in their last four internationals, they will struggle to breach the French defensive line. 

France should have little issue grabbing the win, which will set up a quarter-final tie against either co-hosts Canada or 2022 semi-finalists Morocco.

There’s no doubt that the core strength of this French team lies in its attack. Kylian Mbappé headlines a front line that includes Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki, Marcus Thuram, and Jean-Philippe Mateta. 

This collection of forwards is enough to intimidate any defensive line, let alone a Paraguayan defence that has leaked five goals across their last four matches. 

The favourites have been devastatingly efficient in the final third, scoring at least three goals in every single match they have played at this World Cup. 

Additionally, Les Bleus have smashed in three goals in each of their last five World Cup fixtures overall. Paraguay will require a miracle to derail this French train. 

Deschamps’ men scored at least twice in 16 of their last 17 outings, which is why there is strong reason to expect them to clear the two-goal mark once again in this knockout tie. 

It’s worth mentioning that the last head-to-head between these teams took place in a 2017 friendly, where France cruised to a comprehensive 5-0 victory.

Finally, it would not be a France bet builder without tipping Kylian Mbappé to score.

Mbappe is once again showing his elite talent on the world stage with six goals already at this tournament - with his overall World Cup tally already on an astonishing 18, only one behind leader Lionel Messi.

The Real Madrid star has scored a brace in three of his four games so far, including against Sweden, and has opened the scoring in all of those games. 

With the 27-year-old odds-on to add to his goals tally, tipping him to score the first goal once again feels like the smart move.

Paraguay and Sunderland centre-back Omar Alderete is yet to fully recover from a knee injury sustained in their final group game and is expected to miss out on Saturday.

Jose Canale could therefore retain his starting spot at centre-back alongside 93-cap Gustavo Gomez, with full-backs Juan Jose Caceres and Junior Alonso completing the four-man defence.

Brighton’s Diego Gomez is available to return after serving a one-match ban last time out, and he could be joined in centre-midfield by Andres Cubas and either Damian Bobadilla or Matias Galarza.

Julio Enciso, who scored in normal time against Germany, and Miguel Almiron are expected to continue out wide, while Gabriel Avalos is set to start again as the central striker, though Antonio Sanabria will be pushing for a recall.

As for France, there are no fresh injury concerns to report. Marcus Thuram is still dealing with a calf problem and remains doubtful, but even if he were available, there is no start on the cards for him.

Deschamps may be tempted to name the same starting lineup that began against Sweden, with Mbappé set to continue up front as he bids to add to his 18 World Cup goals and chase down Lionel Messi (19) at the top of the tournament’s all-time scoring charts.

Olise, who has registered five assists and is just one away from equalling Pele’s record of six at the World Cup, is expected to continue in the number 10 role, with PSG duo Dembele and Barcola providing support in attack from out wide.

Manu Kone will be hoping to force his way back into the first XI after starting against Iraq and Norway in the group stage. However, Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni are expected to link arms in centre-midfield.

Gill; Cáceres, G. Gómez, Canale, Alonso; Galarza, Cubas, D. Gómez; Almiron, Avalos, Enciso

Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Olise, Barcola; Mbappé

While Paraguay cannot be written off entirely and will undoubtedly fight with the same dogged resilience as they did against Germany, it is difficult to back against an electric France outfit who have scored two or more goals in 16 of their last 17 international matches.

Les Bleus’ devastating offensive firepower should ultimately prove too much for Paraguay, successfully unlocking a resilient backline that stifled Germany and secure their place in the quarter-finals.

Correct score prediction: Paraguay 0-3 France