UCL: How Liverpool, Arsenal, Barcelona, Man City, Chelsea can overturn first-leg results to qualify

What a week. From Victor Osimhen silencing Liverpool in Istanbul to Federico Valverde single-handedly dismantling Manchester City with a first-half hat-trick, the 2025/26 Champions League Round of 16 first legs delivered one of the most dramatic double-headers in recent memory. 

Some ties are effectively over. Others are very much alive. And five teams, despite the mountains in front of them, genuinely believe their night is still coming.

Here is how the first legs finished, and which five sides are still fighting.

Now, the five teams that haven't given up, ranked from most to least likely to go through.

Aggregate: 1–1  |  Second leg at Emirates Stadium

Kai Havertz walked into the BayArena, scored a late penalty against his former employers, and kept Arsenal's European dream alive. 

That alone tells you something about the mentality in this squad. Mikel Arteta's side were unbeaten in all eight of their group stage games and have not lost at the Emirates all season. 

Former Bundesliga champions Leverkusen are dangerous, nobody is saying otherwise, but this is Arsenal's tie to lose. Expect a full-blooded, electric European night in North London, and expect the Gunners to nick it.

• Aggregate: 1–1  |  Second leg at Spotify Camp Nou

Lamine Yamal in the 96th minute, the coolest penalty you've ever seen from an 18-year-old in your life. 

Newcastle were absolutely brilliant at St. James' Park, Harvey Barnes' late strike had the Toon Army dreaming, but Yamal ripped the dream away with ice in his veins and sent the tie back to Spain level. 

At Camp Nou, Barcelona's technical quality on home soil makes them strong favourites. Eddie Howe's side will defend heroically, but ask yourself: can they really keep Yamal, Pedri and Raphinha quiet for 90 minutes in Catalonia? Barcelona go through.

• Aggregate: 0–1  |  Second leg at Anfield

Victor Osimhen has now beaten Liverpool twice this season in Istanbul. The question is whether he can do it a third time, this time, at Anfield. 

Virgil van Dijk has already vowed a "different game" on home soil, and Jamie Carragher puts Liverpool's chances of overturning a one-goal deficit at home at 98%. 

But here's the thing: CBS Sports analyst Michel Egrella warned that if this tie opens up and becomes end-to-end, Galatasaray will suffer. 

If Gala can sit deep, absorb the pressure, and hit Liverpool on the counter with Osimhen, and he only needs one chance, this tie could still go to the Istanbul giants. The most watchable second leg of the round by a country mile.

• Aggregate: 0–3  |  Second leg at Etihad Stadium

Federico Valverde destroyed them in the first half. Three goals, Uruguayan captain energy, and a performance that had pundits reaching for historic comparisons. 

Pep Guardiola, to his credit, refused to wave the white flag, "3-0 is better than 4-0," he said, and he's got a point. 

City famously put four past Real Madrid at the Etihad in 2023. Erling Haaland has been quiet in these big European games and is absolutely due an eruption. 

It's a long shot, a very long shot, but the Etihad under the lights with Haaland hungry and nothing to lose? Don't completely write it off.

• Aggregate: 2–5  |  Second leg at Stamford Bridge

Ousmane Dembele was unplayable. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored twice off the bench. Chelsea's management looked completely lost in Paris, and the 5-2 scoreline was almost flattering. 

To even force extra time, Chelsea need to win by three goals at Stamford Bridge and this PSG side, with that kind of cushion, will not be shipping three goals on the road without scoring. 

The miracle comparison people keep reaching for is Chelsea's 2012 Champions League run but that was a different club with different character. 

For now, this one stays in the "stranger things have happened" drawer. Very bottom of the drawer.

Five teams. Five different sized mountains. One week to climb them. The second legs begin March 18 and if the first legs taught us anything, it's that this Champions League has absolutely no interest in being predictable.