Portugal vs Croatia 2026 World Cup R32 preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Ronaldo to grind on for the win

Portugal finished their group with one win and two draws, advancing without truly convincing, while Croatia scraped through after losing heavily to England before back-to-back wins over Panama and Ghana. 

Both sides arrive knowing that a defeat sends them home, and the winner earns a knockout berth at a World Cup that has already produced its share of surprises. 

For Portugal, this is a chance to show they can translate individual quality into a genuine deep run; for Croatia, it is another opportunity to punch above their weight in a major tournament.

Portugal’s path towards a first-ever World Cup crown is a treacherous one, and begins with a last-32 clash against a Croatia side who’ve reached the semi-final of the last two editions.

The Seleção progressed from Group K as runners-up, finishing two points behind Colombia, although they could have earned a more favourable route through the knockout stage with a stronger group campaign.

However, Roberto Martinez's men began their 2026 World Cup with a disappointing 1-1 draw against DR Congo after creating little in attack, finishing with just 0.65 expected goals compared to the Leopards' 0.87.

Despite responding in style on matchday two by thrashing Uzbekistan 5-0 – with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice – they settled for a goalless draw against Colombia after facing 24 shots and managing only 13 of their own in their final group stage match.

Portugal do at least have the chance to go four games unbeaten at a single World Cup for just the third time ever here.

And seeing as the other two instances saw them go all the way to the semi-finals (1966 and 2006), the omens are with them if they can come through the first knockout round for a third successive major tournament.

Croatia reached the knockout stage the harder way, losing 4-2 to England before grinding out back-to-back wins over Panama (1-0) and Ghana (2-1), where Luka Modric became the oldest player to register a World Cup assist. 

Zlatko Dalić’s side has proven its capacity for tournament resilience over and over, but the England result raised real questions about their defensive structure at the highest level.

Croatia have now won 11 of their last 16 matches in all competitions, although all four defeats during that run came in matches against nations ranked above them in the FIFA World Rankings, raising doubts over their ability to prevail on Friday.

Head-to-head record also offers little in the way of optimism for Croatia, who have lost seven of their previous 10 encounters with Portugal and five of the last six competitive clashes, although the sides shared a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Nations League in 2024.

Croatia’s most recent win in this series came in a friendly in June 2024, when they won 2-1 in Lisbon, which provides at least some evidence that Dalic’s side can cause problems even on unfavourable paper.

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Portugal have taken a first-half lead just once in this tournament – against Uzbekistan, thanks to Ronaldo’s early brace. 

Both DR Congo and Colombia shut them out in the opening period, despite conceding a combined total of 11 shots before the break.

The Seleção boast one of the most glittering midfields in world football. Yet the likes of Neves, Vitinha and Fernandes have struggled to consistently replicate their club form on the international stage. Starting strongly has been a persistent issue.

Croatia are no better off. They, too, have led at half-time only once in three matches – against Ghana. In their opener, they posted a first-half xG of 0.37 compared to England’s 1.38, yet somehow emerged level 2-2 at the break.

Their showing against Panama was even more alarming. Croatia failed to register a single shot on target before half‑time, exposing their attacking frailties. 

Expect both sides to function cautiously until the interval, after which the floodgates should open.

Portugal’s opening 1-1 draw with DR Congo remains the only match in which both teams scored. 

Their 5-0 domination of Uzbekistan and goalless stalemate with Colombia means they have now kept back-to-back clean sheets. However, half of Portugal’s last 10 matches have seen both sides score. 

Also, given Croatia's experience, it is unlikely they will sail through without conceding, despite having conceded only once so far. Croatia have scored regularly in this edition, with five goals to show across three matches. 

They may not boast Portugal’s dynamism, but their nous at major tournaments is often underestimated.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s group stage was a study of stark contrasts. The Portugal icon failed to inspire his team against DR Congo and Colombia, drawing blanks in both fixtures.

However, against Uzbekistan in his second game, Ronaldo was decisive. 

He opened the scoring inside six minutes with a typical poacher’s finish from João Cancelo’s delivery. Then, he added a second before half-time, firing into the corner following Bruno Fernandes’ clever pass.

In doing so, Ronaldo became the first player to score in six different World Cups. His tournament tally now stands at 10, one behind Harry Kane and two behind Pele.

Though his usual goalscoring standards have dipped, Ronaldo remains Portugal’s talisman in a star-studded squad. His contribution will be instrumental if they are to progress to the last 16. 

Back him to find the net with an instinctive finish.

Portugal emerged from the draw with Colombia without any fresh injury concerns, although Martinez could make changes after rotating his side throughout the group stage.

Joao Neves is expected to return to the starting lineup after beginning the opening two matches before making a substitute appearance against Colombia.

Ronaldo should once again spearhead the attack as the tournament's oldest outfield player looks to add to the two goals that made him the first footballer to score in six consecutive World Cup editions.

Nuno Mendes, Renato Veiga, Ruben Dias and Joao Cancelo are expected to line up in defence ahead of Diogo Costa, while Vitinha and Neves should operate in midfield behind Bruno Fernandes in the number 10 role.

Croatia also avoided any fresh injuries against Ghana, although Dalic could freshen up his starting XI ahead of the knockout stage.

Josko Gvardiol is expected to return at left-back after his surprise omission from the starting lineup against Ghana, allowing Ivan Perisic to move further forward on the left flank.

Modric should partner Mateo Kovacic in midfield, with Petar Sucic favourite to complete the trio after scoring against Ghana, while Vlasic has also strengthened his case for a start following his late winner.

Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, João Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Félix; Ronaldo

Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol; Sucic, Modric, Kovacic; Baturina, Budimir, Perisic

Little separates these two experienced sides on paper, but Portugal's superior record in this fixture gives them a slight edge heading into Friday's contest.

Croatia have repeatedly shown they can trouble the world's best on the biggest stage, as demonstrated by eliminating Brazil in 2022.

However, the Checkered Ones’ recent defeats against higher-ranked nations suggest the Selecao have enough quality to edge another closely fought contest.

Correct score prediction: Portugal 2-1 Croatia