Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

• Under 2.5 goals

• Both teams to score

• Match to end in a draw

Atletico Madrid are gearing up for their seventh European Cup/Champions League semi-final.

Los Colchoneros are no strangers to European heartache under Diego Simeone, having lost two finals – both to local rivals Real Madrid – and suffered one semi-final exit during the Argentine’s long reign.

This is the first time they’ve reached this stage since the 2016-17 campaign, after narrowly squeaking past Spanish rivals Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

Atletico have reimagined their identity on the continent this term, having already recorded their highest-ever goal tally in Europe’s premier competition with 34 goals – eclipsing their previous best from the 2013-14 campaign (26). 

They scored eight of their UCL goals this season against Arsenal’s rivals Tottenham Hotspur in a two-legged last-16 win (8-5).

However, they face a tricky test against Arsenal, to whom they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat at the Emirates during the league phase earlier this season.

For the first time in the club’s history, Arsenal have reached the Champions League semi-finals for the second successive season, and for the fourth time overall.

Mikel Arteta’s side topped the 36-team league phase with a perfect record (W8 D0 L0), and they remain the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W10 D2).

While ending their 22-year wait for top-flight glory remains the priority, the Gunners are just as eager to lift a maiden European crown. 

Their recent record against Spanish opposition offers significant encouragement ahead of their semi-final with Atletico, having triumphed in each of their last seven Champions League encounters with La Liga sides.

These two have already met once in this season’s competition, with Arsenal romping to a 4-0 home win in the league phase last October, which was Atléti’s joint-heaviest defeat in the tournament (they have lost by four goals on five occasions in total).

Their only other European meetings came in the 2017-18 UEFA Europa League semi-finals, when Los Colchoneros won 2-1 on aggregate (1-1 away, 1-0 home).

Atlético have never lost to an English side in a Champions League knockout-stage match when playing at either the Vicente Calderon or the Estadio Metropolitano (P6 W3 D3).

All six of those games were against different teams (Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Man City and Tottenham).

Atletico Madrid Champions League form: 🟧🟩🟩🟥🟩🟥

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): 🟩🟥🟥🟥🟥🟩

Arsenal Champions League form: 🟩🟩🟧🟩🟩🟧

Arsenal form (all competitions): 🟥🟩🟥🟧🟥🟩

Atletico Madrid duo Pablo Barrios (hamstring) and Jose Gimenez (muscle) are sidelined through injury, while Ademola Lookman (muscle) and David Hancko (ankle) are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.

Arsenal-linked Julian Alvarez is also a minor doubt, as he has been carrying ‘discomfort’.

As for the Gunners, Eberechi Eze was forced off against Newcastle, following Kai Havertz to the treatment table after the German’ 33rd-minute withdrawal at the Emirates Stadium.

There was a further boost as Bukayo Saka returned from his long lay-off off the bench, while Riccardo Calafiori is thought to be nearing a return and could feature in Spain.

Jurrien Timber has not played for his club for a month now after suffering a groin injury, and there are still no indications on when he might make a comeback.

Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri; Simeone, Koke, Cardoso, González; Griezmann, Álvarez

Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli

First legs in the latter stages of a tournament can often be cagey affairs in the best of times. Add to that two sides not renowned for their attacking styles of play, and this could be a tough watch at the Metropolitano.

Simeone will, of course, field his rigid 4-4-2, while Arteta and co. will likely lean on their set-piece prowess again. 

Arsenal’s emphatic four-goal triumph over Atletico in the league phase will bolster their confidence heading to Madrid, but we are backing the hosts to breach the stubborn Gunners backline on this occasion and come away with at least a share of the spoils.

Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal