Tunisia vs Netherlands 2026 World Cup preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Oranje to march out Group F winners

Netherlands sit top of Group F on four points after one win and one draw from two matches, and need only a point to guarantee passage to the knockout round.

Tunisia, meanwhile, are mathematically eliminated with zero points from two matches and a goal difference of -8. 

The Dutch will have one eye on goal difference, with Japan level on points in second, meaning Ronald Koeman’s side have reason to push for a convincing winning margin rather than settle for a workmanlike three points.

Tunisia arrive at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday with nothing but pride to play for.

Any hopes of advancing from Group F ended when they followed their 5-1 capitulation to Sweden in their opening game with another 4-0 loss to Japan.

Tunisia became just the fourth team to lose two games in a single World Cup tournament by four or more goals, and the first since Greece in 1994.

Another heavy loss will see them become the first side to lose three by such a margin in a single edition.

Therefore, pride and the search for a first World Cup group-stage point are the only remaining targets in Kansas City.

However, a win rate of just 15% in World Cup matches (W3, D5, L12), a turnaround here looks unlikely.

Netherlands, by contrast, have navigated their group with composure despite an opening 2-2 draw with Japan.

The Dutch were nothing short of ruthless in their 5-1 demolition of Sweden on matchday two, with goals arriving in the 5th, 17th, 47th, and 54th minutes before a fifth late on as Ronald Koeman's side picked up their first win of the 2026 World Cup in style.

The win secured their place in the knockouts and extended their unbeaten run to 14 consecutive World Cup games (W9, D5 - excluding penalty shootout losses). 

That’s the longest sequence any side has ever managed and the Oranje have been ruthlessly efficient at this tournament by converting seven (35%) of their 20 shots, their best rate at any World Cup since 1966. 

These sides have met just three times in their history, all in friendly matches, and this World Cup fixture will be the first competitive encounter between the two nations.

The Netherlands are unbeaten in three previous H2Hs (W1, D2) and have never lost a World Cup game against an African team (W4, D1). 

Tunisia, meanwhile, have won only one of their 13 World Cup meetings with European nations (D4, L8).

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The Netherlands will head to Kansas full of confidence after their domination of Sweden last time out. Tunisia, meanwhile, will hope to bounce back after two horrible results. 

Neither side have any injury or suspension concerns, meaning both managers possess fully fit squads to choose from at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Memphis Depay could receive his first start of the tournament if Ronald Koeman chooses to rotate his line-up. However, the manager might also opt not to make changes. 

Conversely, Herve Renard must make changes to find a solution for his struggling side. 

Still, we fully expect a victory for Oranje here.

Group F has featured plenty of goals. Every single game so far has seen over 3.5 goals scored, and three of the four saw both teams on the scoresheet. 

We expect the same could happen again in Missouri.

Five of the Netherlands’ six games in 2026 have also seen both teams find the net, too, so another one wouldn’t be surprising. Tunisia have struggled to score consistently, but with no remaining pressure, Renard will want to see some resilience. 

Oranje should come out on top, but their opponents will be eager to regain some credibility before exiting the tournament.

Following his impressive brace against the Swedes, Cody Gakpo will enter this match in exceptionally high spirits. 

Gakpo experienced a difficult domestic season with Liverpool, but has often shone for his country. 

The 27-year-old has 35 goals and assists in 52 international games, including six in his last five outings. He’ll be eager to add to his tally.

Gakpo needs just 10 goals to equal the legendary Johan Cruyff’s international record, and he is 12 behind Ruud van Nistelrooy. 

He will certainly view this vulnerable Tunisian defence as an ideal opportunity to close that gap, and we expect him to succeed.

Renard adopted the back-five system of his predecessor Lamouchi in the loss to Japan, but following another heavy loss, he could consider a back-four for this clash.

One of Dylan Bronn, Omar Rekik and Montassar Talbi could drop from central defence, while Yan Valery and Ali Abdi maintain their spots at full-back.

Burnley’s Hannibal Mejbri is likely to take up the creative midfield role, with Ellyes Skhiri providing cover behind him and Anis Ben Slimane.

Netherlands, meanwhile, will look to welcome back Quinten Timber, who missed the win over Sweden due to a concussion.

Brobbey should have done enough to keep his starting spot at the tip of the attack, though there are questions over a knock from the game against Sweden.

If he is fit enough, Donyell Malen and Gakpo are the likely starters beside him, though Summerville is battling hard to come back into the XI after his goal last time out.

Frenkie de Jong's composure in midfield has been a stabilising force throughout, and he should start again alongside Manchester City’s Tijjani Reijnders and Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch.

Dahmen; Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Ali Abdi; Skhiri; Slimane, Hannibal; Chaouat, Saad, Mastouri

Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven; De Jong, Reijnders, Gravenberch; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo

This is a match defined by contrasting circumstances before a ball is kicked. 

Tunisia arrive in Kansas City already eliminated, having shipped nine goals in their two group games, and face a Netherlands side that has beaten Sweden 5-1 and played Japan to a 2-2 draw. 

The Dutch carry genuine attacking firepower from front to back, and Koeman has strong motivation to rotate carefully while still pressing for a big win that could influence the group’s final standings.

Tunisia have offered precious little across two heavy defeats, and there is nothing in their numbers or quality to suggest a sudden transformation is coming.

The Dutch will be clinical and comfortable, and we expect them to march on to victory.

Correct score prediction: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands