Bayern Munich vs PSG preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

• Both teams to score

• Over 3.5 goals

• Bayern Munich to qualify

It’s been barely a week since we witnessed the most intense and entertaining Champions League match of this season.

Defensive diligence was not on the agenda for either team, defenestrated with extreme prejudice. The second leg promises to be just as much of a show stealer.

An epic watch for the neutrals and nerve-wracking viewing for fans of either team, the PSG-Bayern pendulum swung back and forth in the first leg as they played out the highest-scoring UCL semi-final match in history at the Parc des Princes, where PSG held off a late turnaround from Bayern to emerge 5-4 winners.

PSG’s fearsome front three of Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ran the show during the first hour, amassing seven direct goal involvements between them.

However, Bayern's recovery from 2-5 down to 4-5 within the space of four minutes set the stage for an unmissable – and unpredictable – return fixture.

History is not on the hosts’ side, though. 

Of the 10 previous occasions where Bayern have lost the first leg of a European semi-final, they have been eliminated nine times, only coming back to reach the final against CSKA Sofia in the 1981-82 European Cup.

Prevailing by any scoreline in the opening fixture also usually means success for PSG, who have won 36 of their 43 UEFA two-legged ties when triumphing in the first leg, and 14 of their 17 when that victory came by a single goal.

The reigning European champions have also won each of their last six games on the road in all competitions, while keeping clean sheets in each of their last five.

However, PSG shutting out Bayern on Wednesday would be the shock of all Champions League shocks at the Allianz Arena, where FC Hollywood have won five of their last six matches against Les Parisiens, netting 15 goals along the way.

Both sides are also just a few strikes away from breaking Barcelona's single-season record of 45 goals in the 1999-00 Champions League; PSG have netted 43 times and Bayern 42. 

Either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid could have their work cut out in Budapest against Wednesday's winner.

PSG ended a five-match losing streak against Bayern with their 5-4 win in the first leg, but Bayern generally have a good record against PSG.

They have won nine of their previous 16 matches against them (L7).

PSG have lost more away games against Bayern (5) than against any other opponent in the European Cup/Champions League.

Bayern Munich Champions League form: 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟥

Bayern Munich form (all competitions): 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟥🟧

PSG Champions League form: 🟧🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

PSG form (all competitions): 🟩🟥🟩🟩🟩🟧

Bayern have no new injury concerns to worry about for the second leg, and Vincent Kompany is also hopeful that teenage sensation Lennart Karl will make a full recovery from a torn thigh muscle in time to be involved.

Serge Gnabry (thigh) and Raphael Guerreiro (hamstring) remain out of contention for the hosts. Neither man would have started on Wednesday, though, as Kompany will revert to his strongest possible XI.

Manuel Neuer, Dayot Upamecano, Alphonso Davies, Joshua Kimmich, Olise, Luis Diaz, and Harry Kane will all return after being demoted to the bench against Heidenheim. 

Kane is now aiming to score for the seventh consecutive Champions League game, having become the first English player to score in six in a row last time out.

In contrast, PSG suffered a serious fitness blow in last week's nine-goal spectacle, as flying full-back Achraf Hakimi pulled up with a hamstring injury which will sideline him for a few weeks.

With the Moroccan out of contention, Warren Zaire-Emery should cover in defence, allowing Fabian Ruiz to rejoin Portuguese pair Vitinha and Joao Neves in a familiar engine room from PSG's 2024-25 run to glory.

The visitors are also missing second-choice goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier (hand) but are otherwise in good shape for Wednesday.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia needs just one goal to set a new single-season UCL record for PSG, having drawn level with Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 10 from 2013-14 last week.

Bayern Munich: Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Diaz; Kane

PSG: Safonov; Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia

All evidence points towards another goal-laden affair between two worthy European champions.

However, the absence of Hakimi – the best defender in the world in the eyes of some – could prove devastating for PSG, offensively and defensively.

Bayern will hopefully be a bit more settled at the Allianz, and, subsequently, Kompany will be keen to see a more assured defensive performance from his side.

The Bavarians’ attack remains in fine fettle, especially on home soil where they have scored four goals in five of their last seven home games and only need to win by a margin of two to book their place in the final. 

We expect them to advance.

Correct score prediction: Bayern Munich 4-2 PSG (Bayern win 8-7 on aggregate)