Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips: Fifth Hosts Fourth In Battle For Champions League Qualification

With only two matches remaining, the margins separating the clubs chasing Europe’s elite competition have become incredibly small. 

Liverpool currently occupy fourth place, but only goal difference keeps them above Aston Villa in fifth, while Bournemouth remain close enough behind to punish any further mistakes.

For Aston Villa, this match arrives during one of the most emotionally demanding periods in the club’s modern history. 

Unai Emery’s side have seen their league form wobble slightly in recent weeks, collecting just one point from their last three Premier League matches.

These include disappointing defeats against Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur before the frustrating 2-2 draw against Burnley last weekend.

However, this is due to the overwhelming focus and physical demands created by their Europa League campaign, where they will face Freiburg in the final on May 20.

Liverpool also remain on course for Champions League qualification.

However, their performances have frequently lacked the authority, consistency and intensity expected from a side with title ambitions, let alone the reigning champions.

The disappointing 1-1 draw against Chelsea once again highlighted Liverpool’s struggles to fully control games, while the chaotic 3-2 defeat against Manchester United earlier this month raised fresh questions about the side’s defensive organisation away from home.

*Odds sourced from SportyBet and are correct at the time of publishing. Always gamble responsibly.

Both sides have looked vulnerable defensively in recent weeks, but still carry enough attacking quality to find the back of the net.

Aston Villa have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last five Premier League matches and have managed just four league shutouts throughout 2026. 

However, they continue to score consistently, averaging roughly a goal per game in the league this calendar year.

Liverpool’s defensive record hasn’t been much stronger either, with the Reds keeping clean sheets in only two of their last ten Premier League games. 

At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool are averaging 1.9 goals per match across their last ten league fixtures.

Given the defensive issues both sides have shown, backing both teams to score looks a strong option.

Liverpool may not be in outstanding form right now, but Aston Villa’s recent league results haven’t been much better. 

The Reds have won five of their last ten Premier League matches and currently sit fourth in the table, just ahead of Villa on goal difference.

While Villa spent much of the season involved in the title race, their recent focus has clearly shifted towards the Europa League, where they have reached the final.

Unai Emery’s side have won just two of their last ten Premier League games, and with a major European final coming up just five days later, rotation and squad management could be a factor.

Liverpool also boast an impressive recent record in this fixture, going unbeaten in their last 11 matches against Aston Villa in all competitions. Their last defeat to Villa came back in the unforgettable 7-2 loss at Villa Park in 2020.

Given Villa’s divided focus and Liverpool’s strong record in this fixture, we're backing the Reds to avoid defeat.

Villa have scored first in 61% of their home games so far this season. Meanwhile, Liverpool have conceded first in 50% of their away fixtures in 2025/26.

Yet we can back Villa to take the lead at a probability of only 46.51% on Friday.

The Reds have conceded an average of 1.61 goals per away game so far this season, while Villa’s average is 1.11 goals conceded per home game. That’s below the league average for home games (1.23).

Liverpool have also lost three of their last four away games, aside from their historic Merseyside derby win at Everton.

Based on the data alone, this is the best value play from our trio of Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions. 

Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Lindelof, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins

Mamardashvili; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Isak

Aston Villa will still be missing Boubacar Kamara (knee), Alysson (groin) and Amadou Onana (calf) for Friday's clash with Liverpool.

Harvey Elliott also cannot feature against his parent club due to the rules of his loan agreement. Apart from these, the home side are otherwise in strong shape for the contest.

Conor Bradley (knee), Hugo Ekitike (Achilles), Giovanni Leoni (knee) and Wataru Endo (foot) are definitely out for the Villa trip.

Meanwhile, Ibrahima Konate (thigh), Alisson (fitness) and Florian Wirtz (illness) all need to be assessed before final decisions on their involvement can be made.

However, Mohamed Salah has been cleared to play "a few minutes" after recovering from injury.

Alexander Isak featured off the bench against Chelsea last time out after recovering from injury, and the Sweden international could now be introduced into the starting side against Villa.