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Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction and Betting Tips: Gunners Welcome Basement Boys On Brink of Premier League Glory

Arsenal welcome Burnley to the Emirates Stadium for their final home game of the 2025/26 season on Monday night.
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The Gunners battled for a hard fought 1-0 win away to West Ham last time out as a late Leandro Trossard strike sealed the three points amid VAR drama in stoppage time. 

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A smart bit of individual play saw Martin Ødegaard tee the Belgian up before Callum Wilson fired in an equaliser from a corner in added time. 

However, Pablo was deemed to have fouled David Raya, and the goal was ruled out.

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Victory for Mikel Arteta's side over Burnley could prove to be a title-clinching one if Bournemouth do them a favour 24 hours later if the Cherries somehow beat Manchester City, although that’s just wishful thinking.

Having already been relegated, Burnley don't have anything to play for, but did hold Aston Villa to a 2-2 draw in their last outing. 

With just two games remaining, Mikel Arteta's side have the Premier League title within their grasp. 

Arsenal will be strong favourites to go one step closer, but Mike Jackson's team will be looking to be smooth criminals in the title race and make the final day a thriller.

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Selection

Market

Best Odds

Confidence

Primary tip

Arsenal -2 Handicap

1.85

Medium

Value bet

Arsenal to score over 1.5 second half goals

1.80

High

Player prop

Viktor Gyokeres to score first

3.70

Medium

*Odds sourced from SportyBet and are correct at the time of publishing. Always gamble responsibly.

Arsenal -2 Handicap

Winning the game will be Arsenal's main priority. However, they can boost their title chances even further by securing a clear victory.

The Gunners currently have a goal difference of +42, compared to Man City’s +43. This is the ideal fixture for them to try to boost that. 

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A very crucial win could mean they only need to draw their final match against Crystal Palace. That will ensure Arteta’s side do not let up if they’re a goal or two in front.

They’ve already won six Premier League home fixtures this season by margins of three or more goals.

Burnley have by far the worst record in the division, with a total xGA of 72.0 (expected goals against). They’ve also created the fewest xG with 31.3. 

The Clarets are winless in 11 games in all competitions, and are likely to suffer a heavy defeat.

Arsenal to score over 1.5 second half goals

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Arsenal are within touching distance of their first Premier League title in 22 years. That could potentially lead to a slightly jittery start. 

Mikel Arteta || Imago
Mikel Arteta || Imago

However, they should start scoring frequently once they break the deadlock.

With goal difference potentially at play, Arteta may opt for a more offensive style of play, even if his team are ahead. 

The Gunners have scored 59% of their league goals after the break this season. They average 1.28 second-half goals per game at home.

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The leaders should better that against a vulnerable Burnley defence. The visitors have conceded 1.5 goals in the second half per away match on average in the Premier League.

Given that, backing Arsenal to score over 1.5 second-half goals seems good with an implied probability of 57.1%.

Viktor Gyokeres to score first

While Viktor Gyokeres has not been as prolific as Arsenal hoped, the Swedish international has still played a crucial role in their title bid. 

His 14 Premier League goals have come at a respectable rate of one every 158 minutes. The ex-Sporting striker is in good form ahead of this game, having netted three times in his past four appearances.

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Gyokeres scores opening goal against Everton || imago
Gyokeres scores opening goal against Everton || imago

It took Gyokeres just nine minutes to break the deadlock in Arsenal’s last home league game against Fulham. He went on to net twice before the interval in that clash.

Gyokeres has also netted in the opening 15 minutes on three occasions this season across all competitions.

One of those goals came in the reverse fixture against Burnley, when he headed home the opener in the 14th minute.

Having scored four goals in Arsenal’s last four Premier League home fixtures, Gyokeres is the outstanding candidate to net first.

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Predicted Lineups

Arsenal: (4-2-3-1)

Raya; Mosquera, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Odegaard, Trossard; Gyokeres

Burnley: (4-2-3-1)

Dubravka; Walker, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Pires; Ugochukwu, Florentino; Tchaouna, Hannibal, Anthony; Flemming

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Team News – Arsenal

Arsenal's critical victory over West Ham came at quite the defensive cost, as Ben White suffered a season-ending knee injury that could also scupper his World Cup chances.

Riccardo Calafiori was also withdrawn at halftime with an unspecified issue, and while Arteta remains optimistic that the Italy international has avoided a major problem, he is unlikely to be risked on Monday.

Jurrien Timber (groin) and Mikel Merino (foot) are both out of contention.

Team News – Burnley

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Hannibal Mejbri came off for Burnley in the 69th minute due to an unexplained injury, but he has "recovered well" according to Jackson and might be involved on Monday.

Experienced right-back Connor Roberts is also nearing a senior comeback following over a year out with an Achilles injury, having recently competed for the Under-21s.

However, Jordan Beyer (hamstring) and Josh Cullen (knee) are out.

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