AFCON 2025: With Osimhen, Supercomputer ranks Super Eagles 5th, Morocco as favourites to win on home soil

The Opta Supercomputer has identified Morocco as the leading favourite to win the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, handing the host nation the highest probability of lifting the trophy on home soil.

The AFCON 2025 is set to kick off in Morocco, with the final scheduled for January 18, 2026.

As anticipation builds across the continent, Opta’s data-led forecast has placed the Atlas Lions firmly at the top of the contenders’ list.

According to Opta’s projections, Morocco has a 19.1% chance of winning the tournament, the highest among all participating nations.

The prediction reflects the Atlas Lions’ strong recent performances, squad depth, and the traditional advantage enjoyed by host nations.

Morocco, which reached the semi-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, will be aiming to translate their global momentum into continental success in front of home fans.

Trailing Morocco are Africa’s most successful nation, Egypt, with a 12.4% chance of securing a record-extending AFCON title. The Pharaohs remain a constant threat at major tournaments, backed by experience and pedigree.

Defending AFCON champions Senegal are ranked third with a 12.3% probability. The Teranga Lions will be eager to reclaim continental dominance after mixed results since their last triumph.

Algeria sit fourth in Opta’s rankings with a 12.0% chance, while Nigeria complete the top five at 7.3%.

The Super Eagles, three-time champions, are hoping to bounce back strongly after finishing runners-up in the previous edition.

Nigeria were beaten 2-1 by the Ivory Coast in the last final, and the reigning champions are listed among the teams with an outside chance of repeating their success.

Opta’s top ten also includes Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Mali, Cameroon, and South Africa, all of whom are considered capable of mounting serious challenges if momentum swings their way during the tournament.