UCL Quarterfinal: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

• Over 3.5 goals

• Both teams to score

• Bayern to qualify

Word on the street is, the most used word in the Real Madrid dressing room over the last couple of days... is Remontada.

Bayern turned in a statement performance at the Bernabéu last week, where they came away as 2-1 victors.

Goals either side of half-time from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane helped the Bavarians earn a slender first-leg victory over Real Madrid and ended their nine-game winless run against the Spanish giants (L7 D2).

However, a late strike from Kylian Mbappe has kept the contest alive for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side.

Bayern will take comfort from having won 29 of their 30 two-legged ties in UEFA competition after winning the first leg on the road, including 12 out of 13 when winning the first leg by a one-goal margin.

The only blot on their copybook came in 2010-11 when Inter Milan came from 1-0 down to win 3-2 in the second leg and progress from the last 16 on away goals.

While Kompany’s men followed up their victory in Madrid with an emphatic 5-0 away success over St Pauli in the Bundesliga last Saturday, Alvaro Arbeloa’s men were held to a 1-1 home draw by Girona last Friday.

This has allowed title rivals Barcelona to establish a nine-point lead at the La Liga summit with seven games remaining.

Life after Xabi Alonso has been anything but smooth for Arbeloa. A shock Copa del Rey exit at the hands of lower-league opposition, followed by a stuttering European campaign, has left the 43-year-old under mounting pressure. 

With the domestic title now slipping away, Arbeloa has only one card left to play: the club’s historic ability to transform under the bright lights of the Champions League.

Bayern’s victory in the first leg ended a nine-game winless run for them against Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (D2 L7).

However, Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last four games at the Allianz Arena (W3 D1) and have not lost any of their last four UCL two-legged ties with the Bavarians, most recently winning 4-3 on aggregate in the 2023-24 semi-finals.

Only once before have Bayern won both legs of a knockout stage tie against the Spanish giants in the European Cup/Champions League, doing so in the 2000-01 semi-finals (1-0 away, 2-1 at home).

Bayern Munich Champions League form: 🟩🟩🟩🟥🟩🟩

Bayern Munich form (all competitions): 🟧🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Real Madrid Champions League form: 🟥🟩🟩🟩🟩🟥

Real Madrid form (all competitions): 🟩🟩🟩🟥🟥🟧

Bayern Munich will be without teenage winger Lennart Karl (thigh) and goalkeeper Sven Ulreich (muscle) due to injury. Harry Kane should be fit to feature despite feeling “a few reactions” after the first leg, resulting in him watching on as an unused substitute against St Pauli.

Kane, who has registered a goal or an assist in each of his last four Champions League appearances against Real Madrid, has netted 11 goals in this season’s competition and is just one goal away from recording his best UCL goal tally.

Serge Gnabry will hope to have shaken off a minor knee issue to start alongside Diaz and Michael Olise in attack, with Jamal Musiala making way, while Aleksandar Pavlovic will be pushing to start ahead of Leon Goretzka in centre-midfield.

As for Real Madrid, Thibaut Courtois (thigh) and Rodrygo (ACL) remain sidelined through injury, while Aurelien Tchouameni picked up his third yellow card of the competition in last week’s first leg and is now suspended for Wednesday’s match.

Mbappe is the Champions League’s top scorer this term with 14 goals in just 10 games - only three behind the single-season scoring record of 17. However, the forward is currently a minor doubt for the second leg after sustaining a facial injury in the latter stages of the draw with Girona.

If fit, the Frenchman could be joined in attack by Vinicius Junior and either Arda Guler or Brahim Diaz, with Gonzalo Garcia waiting in the wings to lead the line if needed.

Bayern Munich: Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Gnabry, Diaz; Kane

Real Madrid: Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham; Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius Jr

Time and time again, Los Blancos have defied the odds to prevail on the European stage. However, their current form may see them come up short on this occasion. 

Indeed, the formidable home record of the German juggernauts, combined with an attacking unit in peak form, suggests that Real Madrid’s knack for UCL miracles will be pushed to its absolute limit.

Correct score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-2 Real Madrid (Bayern Munich to win 5-3 on aggregate)