Super Falcons’ WAFCON win is still a loss for African football

The Super Falcons delivered when it mattered most, thrashing Egypt 6-2 to book their place in the quarter-finals of the 2026 Women's Africa Cup of Nations after a turbulent group-stage campaign.

Yet while Nigeria celebrated qualification, the outcome exposed a much bigger issue. The structure of WAFCON as a pathway to the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup means Africa is already guaranteed to lose one of its strongest women's teams before the tournament's decisive stages.

Nigeria's route to the knockout rounds was anything but straightforward.

The defending champions opened their campaign with a shock 3-2 defeat to tournament debutants Malawi before bouncing back with a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Zambia despite playing much of the game with 10 players.

That set up a decisive final Group C clash against Egypt, where the Super Falcons produced their best performance of the tournament, winning 6-2 to finish on six points.

However, Zambia's 2-1 victory over Malawi created a rare three-way tie at the top of the group. With all three nations finishing on six points, CAF's head-to-head tiebreaker came into play.

Despite beating Malawi, the Copper Queens were eliminated in heartbreaking fashion based on the head-to-head goal difference between the three tied teams, ending the hopes of one of Africa's strongest sides before the quarter-finals.

Zambia's elimination highlights the biggest flaw in CAF's qualification format for the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup.

Only the four semi-finalists at WAFCON are guaranteed direct qualification, while the four losing quarter-finalists must battle for two intercontinental playoff places.

That means one of Africa's elite teams has already lost even the chance to compete for a playoff berth.

Zambia have established themselves as one of the continent's premier sides in recent years, boasting world-class stars such as Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji. Malawi, meanwhile, proved their quality by defeating Nigeria earlier in the tournament despite making their WAFCON debut.

The group-stage format has therefore already removed one of Africa's best teams from the World Cup race.

The concerns do not end with Group C. In the quarter-finals, 2025 semi-finalists Morocco and South Africa will face each other, ensuring only one of those continental heavyweights can reach the last four and secure automatic qualification for the World Cup.

Nigeria could also be drawn against Group D winners Cameroon, another traditional powerhouse, meaning another top African nation will fall before the semi-finals.

While using WAFCON as a World Cup qualifier increases the stakes of every match, it also creates a scenario where several of Africa's strongest teams eliminate one another long before the global tournament begins.

For the Super Falcons, qualification represents mission accomplished. For African football as a whole, however, the competition's format has already guaranteed a significant loss.