Portugal, France or Argentina? Supercomputer makes final World Cup prediction

The tournament, jointly hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, will be the first expanded edition featuring 48 teams.

It kicks off on June 11, 2026, and concludes on July 19 with the final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The competition will include a record 104 matches across 12 groups of four teams.

According to Opta’s pre-tournament simulations (run 10,000 times), Spain emerged as the most likely champions, winning the tournament in 16.1% of the scenarios.

France, England, and defending champions Argentina follow closely behind, each with more than a 10% chance of lifting the trophy.Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium complete the top ten favourites.

Co-host nations United States, Mexico, and Canada, are given very low probabilities of winning the competition, reflecting the significant gap between them and the top contenders.

While supercomputer predictions are not guarantees, Opta’s model has proven highly reliable in previous major tournaments.

Spain have been one of the most consistent teams in the world over the past three years, and even without star man Lamine Yamal for the first two games, his return will be pivotal in the latter stages.