Nigeria vs Madagascar: The incredible stats which explains Lookman's poor performance

Ademola Lookman's lacklustre performance in Nigeria's 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying opener against Madagascar on September 25 has highlighted a stark disparity between his output at major tournaments and his general international form.

The Atalanta forward failed to influence proceedings as the Super Eagles laboured during the qualification fixture against Madagascar at Godswill Akpabio Stadium on Friday, September 25th, struggling to assume the primary attacker burden in the absence of injured striker Victor Osimhen.

Lookman received a 4.5/10 score in the Pulse Sports player ratings following the match. This marked the second-lowest rating among Nigeria's starting lineup, finishing marginally ahead of striker Akor Adams, who scored a 4/10.

His inability to impact the game against the 104th-ranked nation underscores a concerning numerical trend for the 28-year-old when operating outside the confines of an AFCON finals tournament.

Lookman has undeniably established himself as Nigeria's most decisive and productive attacker across recent major competitions.

During his appearances at the 2023 AFCON in Ivory Coast (played in early 2024) and the 2025 AFCON in Morocco, the forward recorded 11 goal contributions across 13 tournament matches.

This output yields an impressive ratio of 0.85 goal contributions per game on Africa's biggest stage, driven by pivotal performances that previously guided Nigeria to the 2023 final and 2025 semi-final.

However, a zoomed-out analysis of his broader international career reveals a sharp decline in efficiency during qualifiers and friendly fixtures.

Outside of the AFCON finals, Lookman has managed just 10 goal contributions across 31 appearances for the Super Eagles, dropping his overall output to a mere 0.32 goal contributions per non-tournament game.

While his specific qualifying record shows six goal contributions in nine AFCON qualifying matches, four of those came during two-legged drubbings of minnows São Tomé and Príncipe.

When excluding those specific blowouts, his influence in standard international fixtures significantly wanes.