Netherlands vs Japan preview, team news, prediction and betting tips: Oranje face challenging opener after woeful warm-ups

Only two nations boast a better win rate at the FIFA World Cup than the Netherlands, who set out on their latest attempt for glory against a Japan side with a knack for upsetting big European nations.

In a group also featuring Sweden and Tunisia, both sides are seeking a top-two finish, which will guarantee progress through to the knockout phase.

The Netherlands and Japan get their World Cup campaigns underway in Arlington on Sunday in what should be a tight contest between two teams that were knocked out on penalties four years ago.

The Dutch came as close as anyone to knocking Argentina out when Wout Weghorst’s introduction rattled Lionel Scaloni’s side in the quarter-finals.

After reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2024 – plus the quarters of both the most recent World Cup and UEFA Nations League – the Netherlands are now aiming to go further and secure an elusive global title.

Ronald Koeman’s Oranje come into the tournament with a strong squad but not in entirely convincing form. 

A brace of pre-tournament friendlies saw them beaten by Algeria 1-0 and only narrowly beat Uzbekistan, with Guus Til sent off late on.

Their form is in stark contrast to their expectations. Fans back home will fully expect a deep run after reaching the final in 2010 and finishing third in 2014.

Japan, meanwhile, came up against an inspired Dominik Livakovic in the shootout in 2022 that followed their 1-1 draw with Croatia in the round of 16.

A dominant force in Asia, Japan are heading into their eighth consecutive World Cup; however, they have never progressed beyond the last 16, even on home turf in 2002.

Ranked 18th in the world – just 10 places below their opening opponents – Hajime Moriyasu's side arrive in a superb vein of form, having won six straight friendlies.

Beating Brazil and England along the way, Samurai Blue have built some serious momentum, after striding through the World Cup qualifiers in style.

In tournaments gone by, the goal has simply been to escape the group stage, a feat they have achieved in just three of their six finals appearances, but they are tipped for a more significant contribution this time around.

These sides have met three times in total. 

Netherlands won the only competitive encounter between them, a 1-0 victory at the 2010 World Cup group stage during their run to the final.

However, the most recent meeting, a 2013 draw and a Japan side that has moved through several phases of development since, provides limited predictive value for 2026. 

This is, in many ways, a fresh contest between two substantially different footballing nations.

Both teams arrive with similar recent form, as the Netherlands have won four of their last six matches and Japan have also taken four wins from six.

*Odds sourced from SportyBet and are correct at the time of publishing. Always gamble responsibly.

The Netherlands have recorded inconsistent results in the build-up to the World Cup, but returned to winning ways against Uzbekistan.

As for Japan, they’ve secured some excellent results this year, with victories over Scotland, Iceland, and England.

With both teams so evenly matched, we can't pick a winner and are therefore tipping a draw.

While the Dutch are the favourites for the group, Japan have made no secret of their grand aims for this tournament.

Holding Ronald Koeman's men to a draw would give them a great chance to finish Group F on top and earn a more favourable draw in the knockout stages.

This game has all the makings of an entertaining match, with the Netherlands likely to see more of the ball and make use of the likes of Gakpo, Donyell Malen and Crysencio Summerville.

Meanwhile, Japan will look to catch the Oranje on the break, much like they did to England on countless occasions during a 1-0 win at Wembley in March.

With chances aplenty likely in this game, tipping both teams to score feels like a smart move.

While there is plenty of competition for places in the Netherlands attacking department, Cody Gakpo's place on the left-hand side seems pretty secure, despite a slightly underwhelming season for Liverpool.

Gakpo has an excellent scoring record for his country with 20 goals in 50 appearances, including both in a 2-1 win over Uzbekistan in their final warm-up clash.

With the 27-year-old bound to cut in from the left and have an effort at goal as much as he can, we think he'll test the goalkeeper with at least two shots on target.

Ronald Koeman’s squad was rocked in the build-up to the tournament by Jurrien Timber’s injury, who has failed to recover from the groin injury which saw him sidelined for much of the Premier League run-in. 

Sunderland’s Lutsharel Geertruida was called up in his place.

ACL victim Jerdy Schouten had already been joined on the sidelines by Matthijs de Ligt and key creator Xavi Simons.

First-choice goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen sustained a hip injury in the Netherlands' final World Cup warm-up, leaving Koeman with a big call to make this weekend.

If required, Bayer Leverkusen stopper Mark Flekken would most likely replace him, while Robin Roefs is another able deputy.

There is competition up front; all-time top scorer Memphis Depay racked up 12 goal involvements in qualifying, but Donyell Malen's red-hot form for Roma has thrust him into contention. 

Japan's most notable absentee is captain Wataru Endo, who announced his retirement from international football after failing to recover from a foot injury.

Livewire winger Kaoru Mitoma was also forced to miss out.

Without the latter, Moriyasu should turn to Take Kubo and Junya Ito as supporting forwards behind lone striker Ayase Ueda; combined, the trio recorded 33 goal involvements in qualifying.

Set for a place on the bench, 39-year-old full-back Yuto Nagatomo could become the first Asian player to appear at five World Cups.

Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; De Jong, Gravenberch; Summerville, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay

Suzuki; Taniguchi, Watanabe, H. Ito; Doan, Kamada, Tanaka, Nakamura; J. Ito, Kubo; Ueda

If the Netherlands’ warm-up campaign is anything to go by, their prospects for the World Cup are not brilliant.

To edge past Uzbekistan with ten men and lose to Algeria will not do much to inspire many fans back home.

Japan, meanwhile, are nothing if not inspired. This is a well-drilled, well-rounded squad which got the better of England in March, and can genuinely dream of a serious run.

To date, Japan have never beaten the Netherlands, who last lost a World Cup opener in 1938, yet this may be their best chance.

Oranje may feature higher up in the pecking order, but Samurai Blue are a slick attacking unit and should at least claim one point.

Correct score prediction: Netherlands 2-2 Japan