Chelsea are shattered, Rosenior is under fire - Why our expert says the Blues won't win at Everton

We put this fixture to our football expert Ifeanyi before looking at a single number and his verdict was immediate. 

Chelsea will not win this game. We then spent time with the data to find out if he was right. 

He got two things spot on and one thing wrong. But here is the twist: even with the correction, his conclusion still holds.

NOT QUITE - Ifeanyi said Chelsea have won just 6 of their last 18 games. The actual number is 10 wins from 18, not as bad as he suggested. Their recent form has dipped, but Ifeanyi overstated the case here.

CORRECT - PSG beat Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate. First leg 5-2 in Paris, second leg 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. Confirmed.

CORRECT - Everton have won 5 of their last 7 home meetings against Chelsea historically.

NEEDS CONTEXT - Chelsea actually have the second best away record in the league this season - 7 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats in 15 away games.

Away from home specifically, they are not as bad as the overall form suggests. The worry is the psychological hangover from Tuesday, not the away record.

The real story here is the mental state of a Chelsea dressing room that was humiliated at Stamford Bridge three days ago, knocked out of the Champions League in front of their own fans. 

Liam Rosenior is under serious pressure, reports this week suggest figures within Chelsea's hierarchy doubt he will still be in charge next season. 

A manager fighting for his job, a squad low on confidence, travelling to a ground they have never visited before, Everton's brand new Hill Dickinson Stadium, against a Moyes side that just lost 2-0 at Arsenal and will be desperate to bounce back. 

Both teams need this, neither is in form. That is a draw written in neon.

• Primary: Draw - Double Chance X

Ifeanyi called it and the data backed him. Two teams coming off demoralising defeats, one playing at a brand new stadium, the other under a manager whose job is on the line. 

Back the draw on most platforms at around 3/1, meaning a N1,000 bet returns N4,000.

• Secondary: Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea's last five league games have averaged fewer than 1.5 goals. Everton have drawn four of their last seven home games. 

Two teams playing cautiously, neither able to afford a heavy defeat. Under 2.5 is available at around ⅘; a N1,000 bet returns N1,800. Steady and reliable.

Everton 1–1 Chelsea. Ifeanyi called the draw. We are not arguing with him on this one.

Responsible Gambling: For entertainment purposes only. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Seek support if gambling is affecting you or someone you know.