Don't let the odds trick you - Why Everton's trip to Arsenal is the value punters are sleeping on

Arsenal can go ten points clear of Pep Guardiola and Manchester City with a win this weekend when they welcome Everton to the Emirates.

The stakes could not be higher and the bookmakers know it, pricing the Gunners at 4/11 to collect all three points.

That is not a betting price, that is a donation. But the value is elsewhere, and it is not hard to find.

Start with Everton's away form. David Moyes' side are unbeaten in six consecutive road games, four wins, two draws, including a 3–2 result at Newcastle.

They arrive at the Emirates with eleven days of rest behind them, while Mikel Arteta and his Gunners are playing their fourth game in ten days after a midweek grind against Leverkusen.

Martin Odegaard, Trossard and Mikel Merino are all missing or doubts. Tired legs, thin creativity. A high-pressure occasion. Everton have seen worse environments and survived.

Arsenal lead the league with 24 set-piece goals, Everton have conceded a league-low eight from dead balls.

Their defensive shape exists specifically to neutralise what Arsenal do best - cause chaos from corners. This game will be tight.

In the reverse fixture, Arsenal's only open-play shot on target was a penalty. Viktor Gyokeres scored it and that was the match.

• Primary: Everton Handicap +1.5

Arsenal must win by two or more goals for you to lose this bet. A 1–0 Arsenal win? Your Everton bet still wins. A draw or Everton win? Your bet wins.

You only lose if Arsenal win 2–0, 3–0, 3–1 and so on. Given Everton's away form and Arsenal's injury problems, that is excellent value at near even-money odds.

• Secondary: Under 2.5 Goals

When these two met earlier this season, the final score was 1–0, one goal, one shot on target from open play the entire match. Everton's defensive shape is built specifically to frustrate Arsenal's biggest weapon: free kicks and corners.

Add three key Arsenal attackers missing or doubtful, and a fatigued squad in their fourth game in ten days, and you have all the ingredients for another low-scoring, grinding affair.

Under 2.5 goals is available at around 4/5 on most platforms, meaning a N1,000 bet returns N1,800. Steady, reliable value.

Arsenal 1–0 Everton. Narrow, hard-fought, and decided by a single moment. Everton make Arsenal work for every inch of it.

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