The conversation around the Ballon d'Or has gotten more prominent in recent days and weeks, with the award less than a month away.
Prediction markets and traditional bookmakers have shifted sharply in recent days, with Lamine Yamal emerging as a strong contender alongside Harry Kane.
On platforms such as Polymarket, the Barcelona teenager has seen his odds improve significantly, even leapfrogging Kane.
🏆 The Live Ballon d’Or rankings on Polymarket. @PolymarketFC 📈 pic.twitter.com/sAVm0MZced
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) September 28, 2026
The latest Polymarket figures currently show Kane and Yamal dominating the top two spots while the Real Madrid forward sits well behind, with Lionel Messi making a late surge.
The change reflects Yamal’s continued high-level performances for both Barcelona and Spain, including his influential display in the recent Nations League win over England, as well as his role in Spain’s World Cup success.
Yamal, on his part, has never hidden his desire or belief that he fully deserves to win the award.
The 19-year-old said recently, “Honestly, I don’t think it’s just this year that I’ve been at the level to win the Ballon d’Or… but it’s been for a longer time.
“Everybody knows it, and they know I’m a player who makes a difference. I believe some people think: Lamine is 19… he’ll win Ballon d’Or someday, so let’s give it to someone else.”
“I just have to win, win, and win, and there’ll come a moment when there won’t be any debate. There will be people who love it and others who say: he’s so annoying… and that’s normal.”
The ceremony is scheduled for October 26 in London.