Manchester United given less than 1% chance of winning the Premier League

According to Opta Analyst’s latest Supercomputer predictions for the 2025–26 Premier League season, Manchester United fans might want to curb their title expectations.

The data-driven forecast gives the Red Devils a staggeringly low 0.6% chance of winning the league – making them 12th in the standings and firmly out of the title race.

The prediction table from Opta paints a sobering picture for Manchester United. While traditional rivals like Liverpool (28.5%), Arsenal (24.3%), and Manchester City (18.8%) dominate the title probability column, United’s 0.6% figure puts them in a group that includes teams like Fulham and Everton.

Even Crystal Palace (2.9%) and Brighton (2.2%) have significantly higher odds of clinching the trophy, despite their more modest squad values and stature.

Manchester United, once synonymous with success under Sir Alex Ferguson, are now projected to spend most of the season battling for a mid-table finish.

The Supercomputer places them with a 7.3% chance of finishing 10th, a 7.5% chance of finishing 11th, and a 7.6% chance of finishing 12th, where they are most expected to land.

The data implies that United’s best hopes lie in merely climbing back into the European spots, but even that appears bleak with a 5.1% chance of finishing sixth and a 2.7% chance of finishing fifth.

While Manchester United scrape the bottom of the title contention barrel, Liverpool top the predictions with a 28.5% chance of lifting the Premier League crown. Arsenal follow closely behind with 24.3%, while defending champions Manchester City are placed third with 18.8%.

This ranking signals a changing of the guard. Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Newcastle United round out the top six projected teams, while Manchester United are left outside the elite circle. The predicted finish sees Chelsea (8.4%), Villa (5.1%), and Newcastle (5.1%) all more likely to win the title than United, highlighting how far they have fallen in the power rankings.

As for the Red Devils' closest competition? Everton, Brentford, and Nottingham Forest are all expected to hover near their predicted 13th–11th positions. This means that Manchester United could spend much of their season dealing with unpredictable mid-table battles instead of focusing on challenging the top six.

It is an embarrassing low for a club of their stature and history, and unless something changes drastically, either in terms of tactical revolution or key signings, the data suggests United may once again be spectators in the title race.