Explainer: Nigeria set to miss AFCON 2027 after heavy defeat to Guinea-Bissau

Nigeria’s Super Eagles face an uphill battle to qualify for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations after an embarrassing 3-0 defeat to Guinea-Bissau in their second game of the qualifying series. 

The Super Eagles had started their campaign with a hard-laboured win over Madagascar in Uyo but were deservedly beaten at Estádio 24 de Setembro on Tuesday night. 

Goals from Franculino, Mama Balde and Alvaro Djalo gave the Djurtus a comprehensive victory over the three-time African champions. 

The win puts Guinea-Bissau in pole position to qualify for next year’s AFCON, with the Super Eagles in serious danger of missing another major tournament. 

Nigeria had missed back-to-back World Cups and are now set to miss out on AFCON 2027. 

Eric Chelle’s men were the outright favourites to qualify top of their group when the qualifying draws were made but will now need a miracle to play in the tournament, which is set to be hosted by Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. 

Ideally, Nigeria would still be in control of their fate if there were two qualification spots available in their group. 

However, with Tanzania already qualifying from their group automatically as hosts, it means only one qualification spot is left. 

This has now put Nigeria in a dangerous position following their 3-0 loss to the Wild Dogs on Tuesday night. 

Guinea-Bissau have now taken control of the group, having beaten Tanzania away from home 2-0 in their first game. 

This puts Emiliano Té’s men at the top of the group with six points, three ahead of the Super Eagles with four games left to play. 

Although there are four games left, Nigeria will need to win all four games and hope Guinea-Bissau drop points in one of their games, which also includes the return leg fixture against the Super Eagles. 

However, that might not even be enough, as head-to-head is the first tie-breaker when teams are tied on points, meaning the Super Eagles might need to beat Guinea-Bissau by a four-goal margin in their final group game to qualify. 

Currently, the Super Eagles have two games left against Tanzania, an away match against Madagascar and a home clash against Guinea-Bissau. 

The Wild Dogs, meanwhile, have a home clash against Tanzania, two games against Madagascar and an away clash against Nigeria in their remaining matches. 

Should the Wild Dogs win games against Tanzania and Madagascar, they will come to the final group game against Nigeria, needing to avoid defeat by a three-goal margin to qualify. 

Nonetheless, despite the result, Nigeria will return to AFCON qualifying action in November when they take on Tanzania in a must-win double-header. 

Meanwhile, Guinea-Bissau will take on Madagascar in a double header, knowing a win in both games will put them one step closer to qualifying ahead of the final round of games in March.