Chelsea vs Arsenal: 5 stats showing Blues stand no chance against Arteta's side

The Chelsea vs. Arsenal fixture is undoubtedly the biggest London derby on the Premier League calendar. While any clash between the regional rivals is typically keenly anticipated with palpable frenzy, their current occupation of the first and second spots on the league table adds an extra edge to the match this weekend. 

However, while both teams are coming into the match hungry and in form, having vanquished legacy European giants Barcelona and Bayern Munich in midweek, statistics, history and recent trends suggest Mikel Arteta's side are more likely to secure a victory. 

Across the long rivalry, Arsenal hold the overall advantage, 84 wins to Chelsea’s 66. In the most recent meetings, Arsenal have been dominant, notably winning 5–0 in April.

The Gunners have the league’s best defence so far. They have an xGA (expected goals against) of 6.24 compared to Chelsea’s 14.31, an indication they concede far fewer high-quality chances. 

The overall balance with goalscoring shows in Arsenal’s +18 goal difference (24 scored, 6 conceded) after 12 games, while Chelsea have a +12 GD (23 scored, 11 conceded).

Arsenal are on a long unbeaten run against Chelsea in Premier League meetings, last losing in 2021 at the Emirates. They have lost just once in their previous 11 league games, with seven wins, three draws, and one defeat, and are unbeaten in their last six visits to Stamford Bridge, winning three and drawing thrice. 

Arsenal's last defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was in 2018, a 3-2 defeat under Maurizio Sarri, in which Marcos Alonso scored the winning goal. 

It’s also worth noting Arsenal’s recent superiority vs the traditional “big six.” Across the last season to date, they boast an exceptional record, with StatMuse recording seven wins, six draws, and a single loss against other big-six sides since 2024–25, and W5 D5 L0 vs. big-six in 2024–25 alone (an unbeaten run against main rivals in the whole of the previous campaign).

Even the bookmakers agree Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge as clear favourites, especially as it is backed by form and numbers.

They sit 1st in the Premier League with 29 points from 12 matches (W9-D2-L1), six points clear of Chelsea. Arsenal are favourites this weekend.