AFCON 2025: Supercomputer increases Nigeria’s chances of winning title ahead of Mozambique clash

Nigeria’s Super Eagles are steadily winning over both fans and data analysts at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, with Opta’s supercomputer now giving them a stronger chance of lifting the trophy.

After entering the tournament as outsiders despite their star-studded squad, Nigeria’s flawless group-stage run has forced a reassessment of their title credentials.

Before a ball was kicked at AFCON 2025, Nigeria were not among the leading favourites to win the competition. Opta’s supercomputer handed the Super Eagles just a 7.3% chance of emerging champions, ranking them fifth behind Morocco, Egypt, Senegal and Algeria.

That cautious outlook came despite Nigeria boasting elite attacking talent in Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, and finishing as runners-up at the 2023 edition.

Concerns over squad balance played a major role in those modest projections. Captain and 2023 Player of the Tournament William Troost-Ekong retired from international football shortly before the tournament, while key defenders Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick were sidelined by injury.

Nigeria were also drawn into a tricky Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania. Opta gave the Super Eagles a 42.9% chance of topping the group, only narrowly ahead of Tunisia’s 40.1%.

However, Nigeria brushed aside those doubts by winning all three matches to finish with a perfect nine points, prompting Opta to revise their title odds upward to 10.09% ahead of the knockout stage.

Despite their dominant group-stage showing, Nigeria’s route to the AFCON title remains anything but straightforward.

In the Round of 16, the Super Eagles face Mozambique, the strongest of the third-placed teams. The Mambas narrowly missed a higher group finish after losing their final game to Cameroon and will approach the tie with nothing to lose, making them dangerous opponents.

Should Nigeria progress, the challenges intensify immediately. A potential quarterfinal clash against the winner of DR Congo versus Algeria looms large, with DR Congo particularly haunting Nigerian memories after knocking the Super Eagles out of the World Cup qualifying playoffs.

Beyond that, hosts and favourites Morocco, perennial rivals Cameroon, and South Africa, who topped Nigeria’s World Cup qualifying group, all sit on the same side of the draw.

Even so, Opta’s updated projections underline Nigeria’s momentum. While they remain fifth favourites behind Morocco (22.82%), Algeria (13.64%), Senegal (13.62%) and Egypt (13.26%), the Super Eagles’ improved odds reflect just how much ground they have gained at AFCON 2025.