AFCON 2025: Ranking the top 5 title favourites in Morocco

The Africa Cup of Nations begins this week, bringing a familiar blend of tactical intrigue, emotional intensity and continental prestige.

With Morocco hosting the tournament, attention has turned to how home advantage, squad depth and recent form may shape the outcome.

Opta’s supercomputer simulations provide a useful framework for assessing the likely contenders, though AFCON history repeatedly shows that probability rarely guarantees comfort.

Based on those projections and contextual factors, these five nations stand out as the strongest title favourites heading into Morocco 2025.

Nigeria just makes it into the top five with a 7.3% chance of winning AFCON 2025, as they struggle to balance attacking strength and defensive fragility.

Runners-up in 2023, the Super Eagles once again arrive with one of the most dangerous forward units in the competition. Victor Osimhen leads the line as he has done in recent times through the World Cup qualifiers, where he scored eight times in seven games.

Should Osimhen somehow come up short, the Super Eagles can also bank on 2024 CAF African Footballer of the Year, Ademola Lookman, whose maverick nature makes him perfect for Cup tournaments.

However, Nigeria’s path is complicated by instability in other areas, as a series of defensive injuries have reduced continuity at the back, while the retirement of William Troost-Ekong further removes experience from a unit that already appears stretched.

Group C, featuring Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania, offers no margin for error. Nigeria’s history shows that they often thrive amid uncertainty, but converting potential into results remains the key challenge. If they tighten defensively, their attacking quality could yet carry them deep into the tournament.

Algeria’s inclusion among the top five favourites may appear optimistic given their recent AFCON record, but the Opta model still assigns them a 12.0% chance of winning the tournament.

That confidence is rooted in squad quality rather than recent outcomes. Since lifting the trophy in 2019, Algeria have struggled to translate obvious talent into tournament success, exiting at the group stage in back-to-back editions.

Yet, under Vladimir Petkovic, there is cautious belief that a more structured approach could restore balance.

Despite getting on in age, Riyad Mahrez remains a creative reference point, especially in chance creation, while Mohamed Amoura offers pace and finishing that have already delivered heavily in World Cup qualification.

Other names, including Ramy Bensebaini, Rayan Ait Nouri, Houssem Auoar, and 2019 AFCON MVP Ismaël Bennacer, also add to the promise of Algeria’s talented squad.

Group E should be a breeze for the Foxes, however, potential early knockout clashes against elite sides represent a clear risk. Algeria’s ceiling remains high, but consistency across matches will determine whether this campaign finally breaks their AFCON stagnation.

Senegal arrive in Morocco determined to reassert themselves after a disappointing title defence in 2023. With a 12.3% chance of lifting the trophy, they sit narrowly behind Egypt in the projections, yet their overall profile suggests considerable upside.

The appointment of Pape Thiaw has brought subtle tactical adjustments, emphasising fluid attacking transitions and collective pressing rather than rigid structure.

The Lions of Téranga boast one of the most balanced squads in the tournament. Sadio Mané remains a decisive presence, supported by Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, both of whom bring speed, ball-carrying and creativity from wide areas.

Senegal’s recent performances against elite opposition, including competitive showings against England and Brazil, have shown their capacity to operate comfortably against different styles.

Group D, featuring Benin Republic, DR Congo, and Botswana, presents a relatively manageable path into the knockout rounds, and their probability of reaching the last 16 is among the highest. If Senegal sustain intensity across matches, they possess the tools to go all the way.

Egypt’s place among the leading contenders rests on pedigree as much as probability. Despite a long wait since their last triumph in 2010, the Pharaohs still carry the weight of seven AFCON titles, more than any other nation.

Opta gives them a 12.4% chance of winning the tournament and a strong likelihood of reaching the final, aided by a draw that keeps them on the opposite side to Morocco if both teams progress as group winners.

Despite his recent struggles in Liverpool, Mohamed Salah remains central to Egypt’s ambitions. Although his club form has fluctuated over the past year, his international output remains productive, particularly during World Cup qualification.

Supporting cast members such as Omar Marmoush offer pace and direct running, even if questions remain over rhythm and consistency.

Egypt’s strength often lies in their ability to manage knockout matches, slow the tempo and turn games into contests of patience. That approach has taken them to multiple finals in recent editions. While not overwhelming favourites, Egypt’s blend of experience and tactical pragmatism makes them a credible title challenger.

Morocco enter AFCON 2025 as the leading favourites, combining statistical dominance with the intangible edge of home support.

Opta assigns the Atlas Lions a 19.1% chance of lifting the trophy, the highest of any nation, and a near-certain probability of reaching the knockout stages.

Walid Regragui’s side arrive on an extraordinary 18-match winning streak, scoring freely while conceding just four goals, a run that reflects defensive control as much as attacking efficiency.

The squad is built around players comfortable at the highest levels of European football. Achraf Hakimi offers relentless width and end product from full-back, while Brahim Díaz adds creativity between the lines and Youssef En-Nesyri provides aerial presence and penalty-box sharpness.

In goal, Yassine Bounou supplies calm authority and proven tournament resilience, while young players like Bilal El Khannouss and Ilias Akhomach could also be game changers as they showed at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

With Morocco also benefitting from familiar conditions and crowd backing across Group A, anything short of a deep run would be viewed as a failure. The pressure is substantial, but the balance of quality, form and environment places Morocco firmly at the top of the rankings.