Kenya vs Morocco: What Stats Predict for Harambee Stars Third CHAN 2024 Group A Match

Kenya and Morocco meet for the first time at the 2024 African Nations Championship (CHAN) as they meet in a win-or-go-home Group A match at the Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi on Sunday.

The East Africans, who have been undefeated in their first two matches, want to pull off a massive upset against one of the most consistent teams at the tournament.

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Morocco's record, however, is daunting – they have not lost in 14 CHAN matches and have swept most of their recent opponents.

Morocco entered on a clean slate following victory over Angola 2-0 in their opener.

The Atlas Lions' CHAN record is characterized by remarkable consistency: they have never lost an opener, never conceded a goal in one, and have won the last five by two or more.

In 20 tournament matches, the Atlas Lions boast 13 wins, five draws, and just two losses. Against East African rivals, Morocco have three wins and two draws from five games, including impressive victories over Uganda and Rwanda.

Benni McCarthy's Kenya have been resolute but dull in defeating DR Congo 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Angola.

Austin Odhiambo has been the most vital man, scoring both Kenya's goals – one in open play and one via the penalty spot – and becoming the first Kenyan to score in two successive CAF senior competition matches. Byrne Omondi has also made a great impact in nets, with six saves in the Angola match to make Kenya unbeaten.

Morocco's past record against hosts in the tournament is one of Kenya's worrying concerns. They have beaten hosts twice, having triumphed over Rwanda 4-1 in 2016 and Cameroon 4-0 in the 2020 semi-finals.

Kenya is also Morocco's sixth meeting against a CHAN debutant, and the North Africans have won three of the last five meetings. The only blemishes were a Burkina Faso draw and a quarter-final loss to Nigeria in 2014.

Possession figures suggest that a conflict of styles may be in the making. Kenya had only 29% possession against Angola and completed 152 passes – as many as their opponents – and used a lot of defensive organization and counter-attacks.

Morocco, however, were content with just over 41% possession against Angola and are reflective of a side that is comfortable out of possession but brutal when chances are on offer.

Morocco's group-stage stability in CHAN history is without precedent. They have lost once in their last 13 group matches, winning seven and drawing five.

Their second-game results are not quite so sparkling – one victory, two draws, and a loss – but the shape they are in now suggests that they can do much better than that this Sunday. The Atlas Lions have also recorded 12 clean sheets in CHAN competition, including the previous three, and are among the toughest teams to score past.

For Kenya, creating opportunities will prove the biggest test. In the case of Angola, they managed only a single shot on goal – Odhiambo's penalty – and will need to find more creativity in attack if they are to trouble Morocco's tightly organized defense.

McCarthy's team will also have to live without midfielder Marvin Nabwire, who was red-carded against Angola in the 21st minute, the first Kenyan red-card holder at CHAN.

Imad Riahi, scorer of Morocco’s opening goal against Angola, will again be a threat, supported by a spread of attacking options – four different players registered shots on target in that game.

For Kenya, Austin Odhiambo’s finishing and Bryne Omondi’s shot-stopping will be vital.

With Morocco's show of capability, Kenya's Cinderella spirit, and both teams happy to play without dominating possession, Sunday's encounter promises to be a test of discipline, patience, and cutting-edge verve in both penalty areas.

Statistics indicate that Morocco will take their longest such streak, but Kenya's defensive solidity does present them with an opportunity to defy the odds.