Awoniyi stuns Chelsea: What his brace means for the relegation race — Can Forest actually stay up?

• Awoniyi scored twice and won the penalty for Forest's third, his best performance of the season at exactly the right time.

• Forest are 16th, six points above the drop with three games left, not safe yet, but firmly in control of their own destiny.

• Three more points from Newcastle, Man United or Bournemouth should be enough, four guarantees survival mathematically.

Nigeria’s Taiwo Awoniyi scored twice at Stamford Bridge on Saturday as Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 3-1, a result that has dramatically shifted the mood around the City Ground.

But Forest are not safe yet, and with three games left against Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth, every single point still counts.

Forest arrived at Chelsea much-changed and with something to prove. Awoniyi made the statement early, opening the scoring before the half-hour and giving Nuno Espírito Santo's side the foothold they needed.

The Nigerian then drove into the Chelsea box and won a penalty just before the break. Igor Jesus stepped up and converted to make it 2-0 at half-time. Awoniyi returned for his second in the 61st minute, putting the result beyond doubt.

Chelsea had their moments. Matz Sels produced a superb save to deny Cole Palmer from the spot in the first half, a pivotal stop that kept Forest's cushion intact.

Joao Pedro had a goal ruled out for offside before eventually grabbing a stoppage-time consolation with an overhead kick. By then, Forest were already home.

Momentum: Forest have now won back-to-back-to-back games heading into the final stretch, the confidence in the dressing room will be completely different to a month ago.

The maths: Six points above the drop zone with three games left means Forest are now in control of their own destiny, they no longer need to rely on rivals slipping up.

Rivals hurt: West Ham and Tottenham both need Forest to drop points. This result makes that job significantly harder as Forest now have a five-point cushion over Spurs in 17th.

Awoniyi's form: A brace at Stamford Bridge is not a small thing. It tells the dressing room, the fans, and Eric Chelle that their Nigerian striker delivers in the biggest moments.

Three points from their remaining three games should be enough for Forest to survive, their superior goal difference over 18th-placed West Ham gives them the cushion. Four points guarantees it entirely, regardless of what anyone else does.

Tottenham sit five points behind in 17th and would need an extraordinary run combined with a Forest collapse to leapfrog Nuno's side. Possible but increasingly unlikely after Saturday.

Of the three, the Manchester United and Bournemouth fixtures offer the most realistic points. One win and a draw from those two would almost certainly be enough. The Newcastle game is the danger but even a defeat there leaves Forest in a manageable position heading into the final two.

The brace at Stamford Bridge takes Awoniyi to four goals and one assist in 14 Premier League appearances this season, a return built almost entirely on moments of impact rather than sustained run of games.

Ola Aina was not part of the travelling squad for the Chelsea fixture, leaving Awoniyi as Forest's sole Nigerian representative at Stamford Bridge. He carried the flag and delivered exactly when it mattered.

Yes and they are now favourites to do it

Six points above the drop with three winnable games, momentum from back-to-back wins, and the confidence of a striker who just scored twice at Stamford Bridge.

Forest are not safe but they are firmly in charge. One more win should do it. The City Ground will be holding its breath, but the odds have shifted decisively in their favour.