AFCON 2025: Super Eagles given less than 10% chance of winning title

Nigeria’s hopes of lifting the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations have taken a statistical hit after new projections placed the Super Eagles among the outsiders for the title.

According to Opta’s supercomputer predictions ahead of the tournament, Nigeria have been given less than a 10% chance of emerging as champions.

The Opta supercomputer assigns Nigeria a 7.3% probability of winning AFCON 2025, placing them behind tournament favourites Morocco, Egypt, Senegal and Algeria, all of whom boast double-digit title chances.

Despite finishing as runners-up at the 2023 edition, the Super Eagles are ranked fifth in the pre-tournament simulations.

Nigeria’s group-stage path is expected to be tricky, having been drawn in Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda and Tanzania.

The Super Eagles have a 42.9% chance of topping the group, only marginally better than Tunisia’s 40.1%, highlighting the fine margins they face just to secure a favourable knockout route.

While Nigeria possess elite attacking talent in Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, concerns remain over squad balance and defensive depth.

Captain William Troost-Ekong, the Player of the Tournament in 2023, has retired from international football, while key defenders Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick are sidelined by injury.

New head coach Éric Chelle, appointed earlier this year, is still not fully settled into the role following the departures of José Peseiro and Finidi George.

Although Nigeria traditionally perform well when they qualify, the Opta model suggests that injuries, recent instability and a competitive draw have significantly reduced their chances of going all the way in Morocco.