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There is no tangible reason why anyone should expect a miracle when Adesanya takes on Pereira.
New Zealand professional mixed martial artist of Nigerian descent Israel Mobolaji Adesanya is set for a career-defining fight.
In the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 287 main event, Adesanya takes on Brazilian professional mixed martial artist Alexsandro Pereira.
This is a rematch between Pereira and Adesanya after Poatan produced a shock win in round five of the UFC 281 main event at Madison Square Garden in New York back in November.
Adesanya has been impressive in his mind game during media day, the ceremonial weigh-in, and the official press conference.
Despite returning to his old antics, here is why Adesanya will suffer another defeat to Pereira.
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1. Same thing, different result?
Adesanya and Pereira have an extensive history in combat sports from kickboxing to mixed martial arts.
On the three previous occasions, Pereira emerged victorious against Adesanya.
Their first fight was a kickboxing event in 2016 as Pereira defeated Adesanya via a unanimous decision win at the Glory of Heroes 1 in Shenzhen.
The rematch in kickboxing took place in 2017 at the 15th edition of the Glory of Heroes in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Pereira did not require a decision this time around as he knocked out Adesanya in style with a left hook to his face in the third round.
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Poatan proceeded to the UFC to compete with Adesanya the Middlweight champion and again was able to get a stoppage in their third meeting.
With three fights between Adesanya and Pereira, there is enough sample size to determine that the Brazilian has his number.
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
2. Weight difference
Adesanya and Pereira have two different body builds and will be a contributing factor when they take to the Octagon.
It is just a fact that Pereira is the bigger man and lands harder shots due to his size.
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According to several reports, Pereira has a normal weight of 220 lbs and faces intense difficulty cutting down to make the required 185 for the middleweight division.
Adesanya just before their UFC rematch even called on the United States Anti-Doping Agency to monitor Pereira extensively ahead of the rematch.
Pereira does not hide that he is the bigger man as he trains with heavyweight boxers such as Chinese professional boxer Zhilei Zhang.
After making weight, Pereira comes into the octagon less than 48 hours later at over 220lbs and no doubt has a massive size advantage against Adesanya.
This is why his shots sound like thunderstorms and carry significant knockout power against a smaller Adesanya.
3. Drake curse
Canadian rapper, singer, and actor Aubrey Drake Graham is a massive obstacle to Adesanya's victory against Pereira.
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Before the last fight, Drake placed a massive amount of money on Nigerian-New Zealander professional mixed martial artist to win.
Drake a high-profile celebrity is known to gamble on several UFC fights with huge amounts of money.
The Canadian superstar put down a token of two million dollars on Adesanya and he still lost.
Drake is known to put huge money n fights and the result ends up being against his pick.
He put down a token of 120 million naira on Nigerian-American professional mixed martial artist (MMA) Kamarudeen Usman to defeat rival Leon Edwards in the welterweight championship fight.
In the main event of UFC 276, Usman suffered a shock defeat to Jamaican-born British professional MMA star.
Now ahead of the fourth fight between Adesanya and Pereira, Drake bet four hundred thousand dollars on the style bender to get a knockout against Pereira.
He also bet five hundred thousand dollars on Adesanya to get a decision victory against Pereira.
Knowing the outcome of his previous bets, it's safe to say, it is a lock for Adesanya to lose.
4. Styles make fights
In combat sports, there is a popular saying that styles make fights and this is applicable to Adesanya and Pereira.
It just turns out that Pereira has the number of Adesanya based on how they match up.
In kickboxing, Pereira was able to prove he can land the decisive punch.
He was also able to get a stoppage in Mixed Martial Arts against Adesanya.
Overall, Adesanya is the better fighter as he has good striking and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.'
However, he is not a dominant wrestler like Usman in the welterweight or Robert Whittaker.
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Adesanya's most successful tactic to get a victory against a monster striker like Pereira would be submission which is a skill that is not his forte.
Hence, Adesanya would be hunted down to the octagon corner for Pereira to set up knockout shots to end the contest.
5. Immediate rematch
In combat sports, every fighter has a chance of victory against his opponent.
In regards to Adesanya and Pereira, there is already a level of psychological dominance established over three fights.
It is about overcoming the mental battle of doubt and three losses Adesanya deals with which could prove too big of a hurdle to overcome.
His compatriot Usman recently took on an immediate rematch against Edwards and was unable to get it done.
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Just four months after the defeat to Pereira, Adesanya faces an immediate rematch with several battles unresolved.
The uncertainty of his future in the UFC if he losses, there have been talks he might move up to light heavyweight, and Pereira suggesting he joins the WWE.
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17:00 - 07.04.2023
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Immediate rematches in the UFC have not gone down well for the losing side and there is no reason why this should be any different.
Adesanya takes on Pereira at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida on Sunday, April 9, 2023.
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