Can Courtois be Real Madrid's Haaland antidote?

ANALYSIS Can Courtois be Real Madrid's Haaland antidote?

Seye Omidiora 22:08 - 08.05.2023

Manchester City are tipped for a final berth, but the Belgian’s brilliance between the sticks could sway this year’s semi-final.

Thibaut Courtois is not one to let criticism slide. The Real Madrid goalkeeper has always felt the need to stand up for himself when necessary, and he came out fighting after last year’s Champions League final.

"I saw a lot of tweets coming my way that I would get humbled today - it was the other way round,” said the Real goalkeeper after the 1-0 success over Liverpool 12 months ago.

"I saw a lot of criticism even after a great season. Today I needed to win a final for my career, for all the hard work to put respect on my name as I don't think I get enough respect, especially in England.”

Thibaut Courtois responded to pre-match criticism with an outstanding showing in the 2022 Champions League final against Liverpool

But the former Chelsea shot-stopper was far from done. Taking exception to his final position at the 2022 Ballon d’Or rankings, Courtois called for more recognition for goalkeepers.

“As a keeper you can’t do more, winning the league and the Champions League the way we did,” the Belgian asserted last October. “Naturally being in the top 10, it’s fantastic, but unfortunately when voting comes keepers are being overlooked with strikers being favoured.

“It’s not such a big deal, but keepers are being underestimated although we’ve been participating in the game much more, sometimes almost as playmakers.”

Thibaut Courtois claimed the Yashin Trophy but hit out at the Ballon d'Or voting

Is Courtois' contribution to Real undervalued?

In a sense, Courtois’s standpoint is well-founded. Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior were extolled in Real’s Champions League run, and the goalkeeper’s goal-saving performances seemed to take a backseat for the Frenchman and Brazil international.

The deciding game against Liverpool was the perfect case in point. The Real custodian made a glut of saves to frustrate Klopp’s men. Two saves to deny Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane in the 16th and 21st minutes, respectively, when it was still goalless indicated what was to come.

He was decisive after Vinicius scored, preventing Salah from equalising four minutes after Real went 1-0 up, and thwarted the Egyptian with an even more critical stop with eight minutes remaining.

The latter saw the Liverpool forward fall to his knees while David Alaba, Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao surrounded their impassable goalie. Courtois made nine saves altogether, demonstrating his goal-preventing qualities for Los Blancos.

Mohamed Salah cut a frustrated figure after yet another Thibaut Courtois save in last year's Champions League final

Courtois' impressive 2021-22

An assessment of the games en route to Real’s 14th European crown underscores the 30-year-old’s importance. 

Courtois saved a Lionel Messi penalty in a 1-0 loss in the first leg of their last 16 tie against Real Madrid, thwarted Kai Havertz and Hakim Ziyech in their dramatic quarter-final second-leg win over Chelsea and got fingertips to Phil Foden’s goal-bound header in extra time against Manchester City in the semis.

The statistics revealed that Courtois was immense in that run, saving 57 of the 72 shots faced in 13 appearances last term, stopping 80.6 percent of attempts on target.

Courtois was outstanding between the sticks en route to Real Madrid's 14th European title (FBref)

Perhaps even more impressive was the advanced analytics that showed the Real Madrid goalkeeper prevented almost five goals based on the quality of shots faced, outdoing everyone in the competition.

Thibaut Courtois was last season's leading shot-stopper in the Champions League (FBref)

Is Courtois even better in Europe in 2022-23?

However, this year’s impression of Courtois has raised the bar, saving 84.6 percent of shots on target, keeping clean sheets in his last three appearances despite facing five shots against Liverpool at the Santiago Bernabeu, three against Frank Lampard’s Blues in Madrid and six in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge.

Thibaut Courtois has statistically played at a higher level in this season's Champions League (FBref)

Thwarting Marc Cucurella before the interlude in West London was particularly significant, as it gave no chance for Chelsea to gain momentum when it was still goalless on the night.

Thibaut Courtois's top save denied Marc Cucurella from opening the scoring for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge

Only Andre Onana has prevented more goals than the Belgian this year, and the goalkeeper is likely to play a leading role in this year’s semi-final.

The Real Madrid goalkeeper outranks all but Andre Onana for goals prevented in the 2022-23 Champions League (FBref)

This is despite observers unintentionally ignoring Courtois again, instead focusing on the match-winning protagonists: Vinicius Junior and Benzema for Real, Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland for Pep Guardiola’s men.

Are observers sleeping on Courtois again?

The attention has been on the attacking players, Haaland especially, whom most observers regard as the missing component in Guardiola’s ambition to end a 12-year wait for another Champions League title.

Erling Haaland Many believe Guardiola is destined to win in Europe so long he has Erling Haaland

The Norwegian has netted a half-century of goals in all competitions, with 12 coming in the continent’s premier club competition. 

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Only Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (35) and Vinicius (34) have taken more shots than Haaland (31), even if the per 90 metrics show the City marksman outranks the wide attackers, with the accuracy of the striker’s shooting (61.3% of his shots are on target) eclipsing the Napoli man (31.4%) and Vinicius (52.9%).

For clarity, Benzema (53.3%) and Kylian Mbappe (56%) fall short of the sharpshooter, who has scored three goals more than expected heading into the semi-final. Interestingly, only the PSG man (3.4) and Salah (4.0) have outdone the City marksman for outscoring their projected numbers.

Haaland has been one of the Champions League's sharpest shooters this term

Nevertheless, Courtois might feel he is facing Haaland at the best time. 

The Man City striker’s shooting has been off-kilter in recent games, failing to convert a surfeit of opportunities in the Cityzens’ recent 4-1 success over Arsenal before scoring late on after Aaron Ramsdale made a hash of a seemingly weak effort, and was profligate in Saturday’s 2-1 triumph over Leeds United.

Those two games sandwiched the encounters with Fulham and West Ham United, where Haaland netted from three and two shots, respectively, suggesting that the wastefulness was anomalous.

Haaland celebrates scoring the third goal against Bayern Munich at the Etihad. PA Images

But Courtois will not care. The consensus makes Guardiola’s men favourites over both legs, but the once again ignored custodian could be the match-saver Real needs to contradict that belief.

Unlike many, the Los Blancos shot-stopper not only talks the talk but also walks the walk. Watch this space.

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