Napoli vs Chelsea preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

Napoli head into their final group fixture knowing that only a win is likely to be enough to keep their European campaign alive. 

Sitting 25th in the standings and outside the top 24 purely on goal difference, the Italian champions are walking a tightrope after squandering a golden opportunity last time out. 

A 1-1 draw away to 10-man Copenhagen proved costly, and matters worsened domestically when they were convincingly beaten 3-0 by Juventus at the weekend, dealing another blow to their fading Serie A title defence.

Returning to Naples could not come at a better time. Antonio Conte’s side have made the Maradona a fortress in this competition, losing just once in their last 20 home Champions League matches (W12, D7). 

They are also unbeaten on home soil in all competitions since December 2024 (W18, D7), offering genuine hope that they can rise to the occasion when the pressure is at its highest.

Chelsea arrive in Italy in far better spirits, even if their position is not entirely secure. Liam Rosenior’s early reign has been encouraging, with four wins from his first five matches in charge following Sunday’s 3-1 Premier League victory over Crystal Palace. 

That run includes a narrow 1-0 Champions League success against Pafos, a result that leaves the Blues clinging onto eighth place and the final automatic last-16 berth on goal difference.

With eight teams locked on 13 points, Chelsea know that victory would significantly improve their chances of avoiding the playoff round. 

However, the timing of this trip is far from ideal. The Londoners have failed to win any of their last five Champions League away matches (D1, L4), a worrying trend ahead of a visit to one of Europe’s most intimidating venues.

Chelsea’s previous visit to Naples ended in disappointment, suffering a 3-1 defeat on their only competitive trip to face Napoli. 

That result forms part of a broader struggle for the Blues in Italy, having lost seven of their last nine European away matches against Serie A opposition (W1, D1).

Napoli’s task is complicated by an extensive injury list. Kevin De Bruyne and Frank Anguissa are among several absentees, with Billy Gilmour (groin), Matteo Politano (muscle), David Neres (ankle) and Amir Rrahmani (muscle) also sidelined. 

Winter signing Giovane, who arrived from Hellas Verona, is unavailable due to eligibility rules.

Chelsea have concerns of their own. Cole Palmer missed the win over Crystal Palace with a thigh issue, and Rosenior has suggested he will not risk any player who is not fully fit, meaning the playmaker could be limited to a bench role if involved at all. 

Romeo Lavia remains out as he continues his recovery, while Filip Jorgensen is still being assessed. Levi Colwill (knee), Tosin Adarabioyo (hamstring) and Dario Essugo are confirmed absentees.

Napoli: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Jesus, Buongiorno; Spinazzola, Lobotka, McTominay, Gutierrez; Vergara, Elmas; Hojlund

Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Badiashile, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Pedro Neto, Fernandez, Garnacho; Joao Pedro

Napoli’s formidable home record and desperation for three points make them slight favourites on a dramatic final night. 

Chelsea arrive in good form but have struggled on their Champions League travels, and that could prove costly in Naples. Expect a tense, high-intensity contest, with the Blues narrowly edging it to keep their European hopes alive.

Correct score prediction: Napoli 2-1 Chelsea

Betting tips:

Napoli win or draw

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score