Monaco vs PSG preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

• Over 2.5 goals

• Both teams to score

• PSG to score first

For a side that endured an uneven league-phase campaign, making the Champions League knockout phase for the second successive season appears a respectable achievement for Monaco.

After kicking off their European journey without a win in three matches (D2, L1), Sebastien Pocognoli’s men steadied the ship by claiming two victories from the next three fixtures (D1). However, those proved to be their only successes across the eight-game phase.

Matchday seven holds memories of a humbling 6–1 defeat to Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu. A goalless draw with Juventus in the final round was just enough to secure a 21st-place finish, edging them one point clear of the elimination line.

Now targeting a place in the last 16 for the sixth time in 11 Champions League campaigns, Monaco must also confront a worrying knockout hoodoo. They have lost each of their last five two-legged continental ties, including last season’s 4–3 aggregate defeat to Benfica at this very stage.

Such fears hold no sway against their Parisian rivals, though. It is through this route that PSG went all the way to win last season’s title. At this corresponding stage, they thrashed Brest 10-0 on aggregate.

However, they arrive smarting from a 3–1 defeat at Rennes, a result that saw Luis Enrique’s side slip to second in the league table and register their third loss in 10 outings in 2026 (W6, D1).

The 1–1 draw against Newcastle in the final round proved costly for PSG, as they slipped out of the automatic qualification places and ultimately finished 11th in the 36-team table, two points short of the top eight.

Monaco and PSG have faced each other 115 times, with Monaco having the advantage: 49 wins, against 37 victories for PSG. At Stade Louis-II, Monaco has an advantage in duels against PSG: 30 wins in 55 games. PSG has ten victories.

This marks the first continental meeting between the sides, though the Red and Whites will draw confidence from their narrow 1–0 Ligue 1 victory at this venue in November 2025. However, there is a wrinkle at the Principality.

Monaco have won by 2 or more goals in 2 of their last 5 home matches against PSG, but have also lost by 2 or more in 2 of those 5. In short, this fixture has swung hard in both directions.

Monaco midfielder Aleksandr Golovin was sent off against Nantes at the weekend, but the suspension does not carry into European competition, so he is expected to feature.

The hosts have, however, been unlucky with injuries this season, with Lukas Hradecky, Takumi Minamino and Mohammed Salisu remaining sidelined with knee issues, while Kassoum Ouattara, Eric Dier and Paul Pogba are ruled out with calf problems. 

Pape Cabral is also unavailable through a muscle injury, while both Lamine Camara and Maghnes Akliouche are doubts after being forced off last time out.

Meanwhile, PSG are without winger Quentin Ndjantou due to a lingering hamstring complaint, while Fabian Ruiz is set to miss a sixth straight outing with a knee issue. 

Ousmane Dembele did at least continue his fine scoring run with a consolation goal at Rennes, taking him to three strikes in his last two matches. The Frenchman boasts an excellent record against Monaco, with seven strikes in nine appearances, his joint-best tally against any opponent.

Monaco: Kohn; Vanderson, Teze, Kehrer, Henrique; Zakaria, Coulibaly; Fati, Golovin, Adingra; Balogun

PSG: Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia

Monaco have made a habit of unsettling PSG at the Stade Louis II, and their recent European home resilience suggests another stern test awaits the visitors. 

Nevertheless, it bears reminding that it is through this route that PSG went all the way to win last season’s title, and Monaco will be looking to not become the new Brest. But factor in PSG’s higher scoring rate and continental dominance, and the edge goes to Luis Enrique’s side.

Correct score prediction: Monaco 1-2 PSG