Arsenal are favourites to win Champions League after R16 draw according to Supercomputer

The knockout bracket for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League has been confirmed, mapping out the road to the final in Budapest on 30 May.

And according to Opta’s supercomputer, Arsenal are the team most likely to lift the trophy for the first time in their history.

Following the round of 16 draw, Arsenal F.C. remain favourites to win their first-ever European Cup. The Gunners had already topped the predictions before the draw, and their position has only strengthened after learning they will face Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the last 16.

Arsenal finished first in the league phase, meaning they will play the second leg of every knockout tie at home until the final if they progress. Combined with a relatively kind route, with only two lower-ranked teams remaining in the competition than Leverkusen, it has boosted their title odds significantly.

Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations and handed Arsenal a 27.4% chance of going all the way, comfortably the highest of any side left in the competition.

Elsewhere in the bracket, heavyweight clashes headline the round of 16, including Real Madrid CF versus Manchester City F.C., the fifth consecutive season the two have met in the knockout stages.

FC Bayern Munich are Arsenal’s closest challengers according to the simulations, winning the trophy in 14.3% of scenarios. However, a potential quarter-final tie against either Real Madrid or Manchester City could complicate their path.

Liverpool F.C. are also strongly fancied, despite being on the tougher side of the draw. Arne Slot’s side face Galatasaray S.K. in the last 16 and are overwhelming favourites to progress, advancing in 82.3% of simulations. Liverpool went on to win the tournament in 12.8% of outcomes.

Manchester City are considered fourth favourites overall, lifting the trophy in 10.8% of simulations. Meanwhile, defending champions Paris Saint-Germain F.C. were given just a 4.6% chance of retaining their crown, partly due to a demanding route that could include Chelsea, Liverpool, and City.

Spanish giants FC Barcelona were victorious in 7.7% of simulations, while surprise package Bodø/Glimt, who stunned Europe earlier in the campaign, were given just a 0.4% chance of completing a fairytale run.