Yamal vs Dembele: AI predicts 2025 Ballon d’Or winner

Paris Saint-Germain forward Ousmane Dembele is on course to be crowned the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner, according to a forecast released by French data and artificial intelligence firm AVISIA.

The French cabinet’s predictive model has given Dembele a 72% probability of clinching football’s most prestigious individual honour following his treble-winning campaign with PSG.

Trailing the 28-year-old in AVISIA’s ranking is Barcelona’s teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who is projected with a 56% chance of winning.

PSG’s Portuguese midfielder Vitinha occupies third place, with his likelihood assessed at 40%, according to Gazeta Express.

The projection underscores the dominance of PSG’s squad in this year’s race, with multiple nominees expected to challenge for top spots.

The AVISIA model considers a wide range of criteria beyond mere goals and assists.

It combines individual and collective performances across club and international football.

An innovative factor, described as “journalistic influence”, measures voting tendencies based on voter nationality, club loyalties, and even stylistic preferences. This layer, according to the company, provides a more holistic and realistic forecast.

While Dembele leads comfortably on paper, the forecast stressed that the race remains competitive.

“According to AVISIA, Dembélé is the favourite, but the race is not over: Yamal, born in 2007, could ruin things, while Vitinha remains a concrete ‘threat’ on the podium,” the report noted.

Dembele’s Champions League heroics and Ligue 1 dominance have made him the frontrunner, but Yamal’s historic rise and individual brilliance for Barcelona keep the contest alive.

The 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held on Monday, September 22, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.

Football fans worldwide will soon discover whether the AI-powered forecast proves accurate, or if a late twist sees the teenage wonderkid Yamal or midfield maestro Vitinha spoil Dembele’s party.