How Nigeria can qualify after South Africa’s point deduction

The Super Eagles' World Cup qualification chances just shifted from improbable to quite plausible after FIFA’s recent ruling which docked South Africa three points and three goals. 

Bafana Bafana fielded an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, in their World Cup qualification fixture against Lesotho in March. 

Lesotho's FA delay in filing a complaint and FIFA’s disturbing silence on the incident sparked concerns that South Africa would go unpunished. 

However, as Pulse Sports reported, FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee have now confirmed that SAFA were indeed in breach and have meted out the punishment as follows:

The match is determined as a forfeit, hence, recorded as a 3-0 defeat against Bafana Bafana. They will also pay a fine of CHF 10,000. 

Pulse Sports did an analysis of Nigeria's qualification chances following the last international break, detailing how bleak the Super Eagles' chances are. 

At the time, South Africa stood at 17 points, six clear of Nigeria's 11. They also had a (+6) goal difference on the Super Eagles. With only two matches left in the qualification round, Nigeria needed SA to lose both of their remaining games by enough goals to dent their goal difference. 

However, now that South Africa have been docked points and goals, the picture has changed, and Nigeria’s chances have improved. 

• Benin Republic now lead the way in the group with 14 points and a (+4) goal difference. 

• South Africa dropped to second, tied on 14 points, with an inferior goal difference of (+2).

• Nigerian remain in third with 11 points and a (+2) goal difference, while Rwanda are fourth with a goal difference of (0).

Winning the remaining games against Lesotho and Benin remains important, especially the clash against the Benin Republic, which effectively cancels out one of the main contenders ahead of Nigeria. It will also help if the Super Eagles can achieve it with sufficient goals. 

Both the Squirrels and Bafana Bafana have to play Rwanda. The Amavubi are on equal points with Nigeria; they also stand an excellent chance of qualifying and are, hence, potential banana skin fixtures for both teams, which would favour the Super Eagles. 

Nigeria need South Africa to drop at least three points from a possible six. They need the Benin Republic to do the same, but with Gernot Rohr's side, Nigeria control their destinies, as they have a date with their next door neighbour. 

The likelier route to qualification still remains winning the group, hence the above, as 17 points, the most Nigeria can collect, will most likely not be enough to finish as one of the best second-placed teams.