AFCON 2025: 4 Dark Horses for the title that could shock Nigeria, Morocco

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco is set to be one of the most competitive editions in the tournament's history.

While continental heavyweights like the host nation Morocco and the star-studded Super Eagles of Nigeria occupy the spotlight as favourites, the landscape of African football has shifted toward tactical parity.

As the opening whistle in Rabat approaches, these four dark horses possess the tactical blueprints and individual quality necessary to disrupt the established order and claim the throne.

Several second-tier nations have undergone significant transformations, emerging from the qualifying rounds with unbeaten records and disciplined squads.

Mali enters the 2025 AFCON as perhaps the most dangerous side outside the traditional Big Five. Historically, the Eagles have been the nearly men of African football, with their best finish being a runner-up spot in 1972, but the 2025 iteration feels fundamentally different.

They navigated their qualifying campaign with ruthless efficiency, topping their group unbeaten, with only one goal conceded in six matches.

Tactically, Mali employs a high-intensity 4-3-3 system that prioritises ball retention and quick vertical transitions. Their midfield is arguably the best in the tournament, anchored by the Premier League experience of Yves Bissouma and the creative spark of Amadou Haidara.

The standout player to watch is Kamory Doumbia, whose 15 goals in 28 caps make him one of the most clinical midfielders on the continent.

Mali finds themselves in Group A alongside the hosts, Morocco, plus Zambia and Comoros. While Morocco is expected to win the group, Mali’s recent results prove they can dismantle organised defences and shock the big boys.

Their chance of winning the tournament hinges on their ability to maintain defensive discipline in the knockout rounds. If they can bypass a potential quarter-final clash with a North African giant, their technical superiority in midfield could see them shock a more fancied side on their way to a historic first title.

South Africa arrives in Morocco carrying the momentum of their bronze-medal finish at the 2023 edition, which signalled a true renaissance under coach Hugo Broos.

The 1996 champions completed an unbeaten qualifying campaign for 2025, finishing at the top of Group K with 14 points and a staggering 16 goals scored.

Broos has painstakingly built a squad that relies on a unique tactical advantage: club chemistry. The backbone of the team is comprised of Mamelodi Sundowns players, including Ballon d'Or nominee goalkeeper Ronwen Williams, midfield general Teboho Mokoena, and the electric Khuliso Mudau.

Their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign is proof of their ability to make the most of the underdog tag as they shocked Nigeria by picking the automatic qualifying spot from Group C.

This familiarity allows Bafana Bafana to execute complex passing patterns and high-pressing triggers that national teams usually struggle to coordinate.

Placed in Group B with Egypt, Angola, and Zimbabwe, South Africa faces a difficult path but enters with high confidence from being unbeaten on the pitch in the whole of 2025.

Their tactical setup is a flexible 4-2-3-1 that can transition into a 4-4-2 diamond, utilising the pace of Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster on the counter.

While Egypt is the historical favourite in Group B, South Africa’s victory over them in past AFCON knockouts makes them a psychological threat.

If they can secure a result against the Pharaohs in the group stage, their path to the semi-finals becomes significantly clearer, and they are widely tipped as the team most likely to repeat a Cinderella run to the trophy.

Angola, the Giant Slayers of the previous tournament, are no longer a team that any powerhouse can afford to overlook.

Their historical peak was reaching the quarter-finals in 2008, 2010, and 2023, but under Portuguese coach Pedro Gonçalves, they have evolved into a disciplined, hard-to-beat unit.

The Palancas Negras topped their 2025 qualifying group unbeaten, famously defeating Ghana in Kumasi, a result that sent shockwaves through the continent.

Tactically, Gonçalves favours a low-block 4-1-4-1 system that emphasises defensive solidity and explosive transitions. They are master soakers, often allowing opponents 60% possession before striking through their clinical forward line.

The talisman for Angola is Mabululu, whose finishing was vital during the qualifiers, supported by the flair of Zito Luvumbo and the experience of Gelson Dala.

Placed in Group B alongside South Africa and Egypt, Angola’s opening match against Bafana Bafana on December 22 will likely decide the group's trajectory.

Angola's chances of winning the tournament are lower than Mali's, but they are the ultimate bracket buster. If they qualify from Group B, their physical style and set-piece prowess make them a nightmare for technical teams like Morocco or Nigeria, who narrowly got past them in the quarterfinal of the last edition.

The Democratic Republic of Congo enters AFCON 2025 looking to prove that their semi-final run in the last edition was the start of a long-term project.

Two-time champions in 1968 and 1974, the Leopards have been revitalised by French coach Sébastien Desabre, who has instilled a level of tactical discipline rarely seen in Congolese history.

They marched through the 2025 qualifiers with a flawless, unbeaten record before embarking on a FIFA World Cup qualifying journey that culminated in a morale-boosting 5-4 victory over Nigeria in a high-stakes playoff final.

Desabre utilises a robust 4-2-3-1 formation that focuses on a powerful spine, starting with defensive stalwart Chancel Mbemba and anchored by the versatile Edo Kayembe.

DR Congo is placed in Group D with Senegal, Benin, and Botswana. While Senegal is the favourite, the Leopards recent victory over Nigeria proves that they can compete with the elite.

Their squad depth is a major strength, featuring stars like Meschack Elia, Cedrick Bakambu, Fitson Mayele, and Simon Banza, providing multiple goal-scoring avenues.

Despite a recent FIFA investigation into player eligibility causing a temporary distraction, the team remains focused.

Desabre’s philosophy of optimising offensive potential through collective organisation makes them a massive threat in a knockout format. They are the dark horse most likely to physically outmatch Morocco or Nigeria in a 120-minute battle, and if they survive the Group of Death dynamics, a third star on their jersey is a legitimate possibility.