Qarabag vs Newcastle preview, prediction, team news and head-to-head

• Over 2.5 goals

• Both teams to score

• Anthony Gordon to score anytime

Qarabag must be thrilled they finally made it to the Champions League knockout phase for the first time in their history. In fact, if any Qarabag supporter had been told before the season started that the Horsemen would still be involved in the Champions League at this stage, they would have bitten anyone’s hand off.

The Azerbaijani club had never secured three points in the competition in their history until defeating Benfica in a 3-2 comeback victory in September, a win that has since been followed by triumphs against Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt on matchdays two and seven. 

Despite a 6-0 hammering by Liverpool on the concluding matchday of the League Phase, Gurban Gurbanov’s team still made history by becoming the first side from Azerbaijan to make it this far, finishing in 22nd-place in the league phase.

They enter this fixture on the back of a weekend win, which will no doubt provide a timely confidence boost. They entertain Newcastle, who finished the league phase two places above them and are also in the Champions League knockout phase for the first time in their history.

Aiming to carry their momentum from recent wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa, the Magpies now seek to record three victories in a row across all competitions for the third time this season, after similar runs in October 2025 and December–January 2026.

However, the European stage is a tricky one, especially on the road. Hence, the visitors have a tough task if they hope to carry an advantage back to St James’ Park.

This is the first ever meeting between these two teams. However, the precedent is against the Blue and Whites, given their historical disadvantage against English teams in Europe. They have lost seven of eight meetings, drawing the other.

Nonetheless, supporters will point to that sole draw coming in their most recent encounter with an English side, when they held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw at the start of November. This result marked the second of four League Phase fixtures in Baku in which Qarabag scored at least twice at home - defeating Copenhagen and Frankfurt 2-0 and 3-2 respectively, drawing with Chelsea and losing 4-2 to Ajax.

Despite being sent off eight minutes after replacing star attacker Leandro Andrade at the weekend, Kady Borges should be involved in some capacity for Qarabag.

Camilo Duran and Andrade have scored four and three goals respectively for Qarabag this season, accounting for 53.8% of Atlilar’s 13 strikes in the League Phase, highlighting the threat of the pair ahead of Newcastle’s visit.

Newcastle head into the match with several players injured: Bruno Guimaraes (thigh), Joelinton (groin), Tino Livramento (thigh), Fabian Schar (ankle) and Emil Krafth (knee) are sidelined, while Sven Botman (back), Lewis Miley (thigh) and Yoane Wissa (knock) will be evaluated.

Only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe (13 goals), Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane (eight) and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (seven) have scored more than Anthony Gordon’s six in this season’s Champions League, and the forward - whose two assists place him joint-second for overall goal contributions - aims to be decisive for the away side.

Harvey Barnes has also been influential for the Toon Army this term, scoring five and setting up one, underlining his importance to the English side on the continent.

Qarabag: Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran

Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall; Ramsey, Tonali; Elanga, Willock, Gordon; Woltemade

While Qarabag have enjoyed scoring 13 goals in their eight league phase fixtures – nine of which arrived at home – their defence has been shaky, shipping 21 goals in that run of games. That will be music to the ears of Newcastle’s front line, who have yet to register a blank in this competition this term. 

It is also worth noting that five of Qarabag’s eight league phase matches saw both teams score, while the same occurred in three of Newcastle’s last four UCL outings.

Correct score prediction: Qarabag 2-2 Newcastle