Aston Villa vs Chelsea predictions and betting tips: Two out-of-form sides battle for Champions League spots

Aston Villa (4th) looks to snap a poor run of form of one win in six, while Chelsea (6th) aims to recover from a narrow London derby loss to Arsenal.

With both sides struggling for consistency in 2026, we expect a tactical but high-scoring encounter.

*Odds are sourced from SportyBet and were correct at the time of publishing

Statistically, this is the most reliable play for this fixture. Over 65% of Chelsea’s matches this season have ended with both teams scoring. 

Furthermore, Chelsea has scored in their last nine consecutive away league games at Villa Park. 

While Villa's scoring has slowed down recently, they have netted 20 goals at home this term (53% of their total), and Chelsea’s defense has been prone to errors under pressure.

Both teams are currently win-shy, with Villa winning just one of their last six matches, and Chelsea on a three-match winless streak in the league. 

With both managers, Unai Emery and Liam Rosenior, desperate to avoid a defeat that would derail their Top 4 hopes, a cautious approach could lead to the points being shared, a result that has occurred in 34% of the high-level simulations for this game.

Pedro is in elite form, currently sitting fourth in the Premier League scoring charts with 11 goals. He scored the opener in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge in December and remains Chelsea's primary attacking threat with Pedro Neto suspended and Estevao doubtful. 

At 7.20 he offers significant value against a Villa defence that has kept only two clean sheets in their last 10 games.

Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Luiz, Onana; Buendia, Rogers, Sancho; Abraham

Emery remains without long-term absentees Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and captain John McGinn (Knee). Andres Garcia is also ruled out with a hamstring recurrence.

Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Fofana, Hato; Caicedo, Santos; Palmer, Fernandez, Garnacho; Pedro

Pedro Neto is suspended following his red card vs Arsenal. Wesley Fofana is available after his ban but may start on the bench. Marc Cucurella, Estevao, and Jamie Gittens remain major doubts and are unlikely to start.