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WHU
AFCON 2025
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Lionel Messi's Inter Miami have been given less than 1% chance of winning the FIFA Club World Cup
The FIFA Club World Cup in the United States is shaping up to be a global spectacle, but Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami won’t be among the top favourites.
According to Opta’s supercomputer rankings, Inter Miami are ranked a lowly 16th in terms of title likelihood, while Real Madrid barely make it into the top five despite their pedigree.
PSG lead the pack, Real Madrid slide into top 5
After winning their first-ever UEFA Champions League title, Paris Saint-Germain have been handed the favourite tag heading into their maiden Club World Cup campaign.
Opta’s supercomputer gives the Ligue 1 champions an 18.5% chance of lifting the trophy, narrowly ahead of 2023 champions Manchester City, who sit at 17.8%.
Bayern Munich follow closely with a 12.8% chance, and Inter Milan, Champions League runners-up, are fourth with 12.3%. Sneaking into fifth place are Real Madrid, traditionally the kings of Europe, but given just a 9.8% chance by the algorithm.
PSG will begin their tournament against Atlético Madrid on Sunday at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, where they’ll also face Botafogo on June 19 and the Seattle Sounders on June 23.
Despite this being their first appearance in the competition and the first ever by a French side, PSG have been given a whopping 75.4% chance to progress to the quarter-finals.
Inter Miami facing long odds despite Messi magic
Even with Lionel Messi leading the line, Inter Miami are not expected to make much of a dent at the Club World Cup.
The Opta supercomputer has placed the MLS side as the 16th most likely team to win the title, out of 32 teams, with just a 0.2% chance. That’s a sobering number, especially considering Messi’s pedigree and the recent strengthening of the Inter Miami squad.
They kick off the tournament on Saturday with a tough test against Egyptian giants Al Ahly, a team steeped in continental pedigree and big-match experience.
Inter Miami’s group is no cakewalk either, as it also includes Atlético Madrid, Botafogo, and the Seattle Sounders.
If Messi’s team can somehow make it out of this group, it would be seen as a major overachievement. But as it stands, bookmakers and data scientists are not buying into the fairytale just yet. Still, with Messi involved, anything is possible, even if the numbers say otherwise.