Nigeria vs Ivory Coast: Supercomputer predicts who will win AFCON 2023 final after 10,000 simulations

After computing 10,000 different scenarios, Opta's Supercomputer has predicted the winner of the 2023 AFCON final

The much-anticipated final of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) sees Nigeria pitted against Ivory Coast, with the football world eager to find out who will lift the trophy. 

Thanks to advanced analytics, the Opta supercomputer has offered insights into the likely outcome after running 10,000 pre-match simulations. Here's what the data suggests about the showdown at the Olympic Stadium of Ebimpé.

 Nigeria the statistical favourite against Ivory Coast

Nigeria emerges as the favourite to win the AFCON title, with the supercomputer giving the Super Eagles a 56.2% chance of victory. This prediction is based on their performance throughout the tournament, where they've shown exceptional form. 

Nigeria's journey to the final has been marked by a solid defensive record, conceding only two goals in six matches (excluding penalty shootouts). Their pathway to the final included convincing wins over Cameroon and Angola, with Ademola Lookman scoring all three goals in these knockout rounds. The semi-final against South Africa further tested their resolve, ultimately prevailing in a dramatic penalty shootout.

 Ivory Coast's Remarkable Turnaround

Ivory Coast's route to the final tells a story of resilience and unexpected success. After a lacklustre performance in Group A, which nearly saw them eliminated, the Elephants managed to secure a spot in the knockout stages as one of the best third-place finishers. 

This turnaround was even more remarkable considering the mid-tournament dismissal of head coach Jean-Louis Gasset. Under interim coach Emerse Faé, Ivory Coast has defied odds, especially in the knockout stages where they required extra time twice and edged out DR Congo 1-0 in the semi-finals.

 Statistical Breakdown and Predictions

The supercomputer's analysis gives Nigeria a 44.2% chance of winning within the regulation 90 minutes, underscoring their status as favourites. However, Ivory Coast is not far behind, with a 30.2% chance of securing victory without the need for extra time. The simulations also suggest a significant possibility (25.6%) that the match could go into extra time, indicating that while Nigeria is favoured, the margin is narrow.

Ivory Coast's home advantage is a wildcard factor that could influence the outcome, providing the Elephants with more than just a fighting chance against a formidable Nigerian side.

As the 2023 AFCON final approaches, the Opta supercomputer's predictions highlight the anticipated clash's competitive nature. While Nigeria holds the statistical edge, the unpredictable nature of football, combined with Ivory Coast's home advantage and their remarkable journey to the final, suggests that anything can happen. Fans around the world will undoubtedly be watching closely as these two teams battle it out for the prestigious African crown.

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