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AFCON 2025
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An evaluation of Nigeria's biggest drawbacks from the AFCON semi-final exit to Morocco.
The Super Eagles and their fans will have to wait until AFCON 2017 for the elusive fourth African Cup of Nations title, after they suffered a semi-final defeat at the hands of Morocco.
Nigeria entered the game as slight underdogs given the context of home-field advantage and the Atlas Lions’ status as the top-ranked team in Africa. Still, the three-time AFCON winners’ form has been undeniable, having posted the best attacking numbers in the competition.
The Super Eagles had scored more goals (14 to Morocco’s 9) and won more games (five to their four). Additionally, Opta shared that while both teams have been the most intense in the competition, Eric Chelle’s side had been more suffocating, having forced the most high turnovers (Nigeria 43, Morocco 41) and pressed sequences (Nigeria 76, Morocco 69).
After the game, however, the same football statistics authority shared a grim piece of stat, revealing that the Super Eagles only managed two shots in the game, the lowest since they began collecting AFCON data. So where did it all go wrong?
Pay Attention: Stay informed on the biggest tournament in African football! Match reports and fixtures inside. Follow the AFCON 2025 coverage!
Eric Chelle’s tactical inflexibility
In the build-up to the competition, much was made about Chelle’s insistence on the diamond formation even when the conditions called for a different setup. The home-based Eagles' abysmal showing at CHAN last year was concrete evidence against the Franco-Malian.
However, since then, he has shown some variety, having played 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, flat 4-4-2, and even a variation of 3-4-3 (in-game tweak). Hence, it could come off as unfair and dated to accuse Chelle of rigidity against Morocco, especially when the setup he chose and insisted on had worked so explosively in the Super Eagles’ swashbuckling adventures from Tunisia until Algeria in the quarter-finals.
However, the test of a cup manager, as one would hope a national team manager is, is the ability to set up a team for what’s in front of them. Eric Chelle failed in that regard.
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Going for what has worked from the onset can hardly be faulted, but his aversion to change and/or tweaks to his system (other than the template Moses Simon substitution) meant that he played right into Walid Regragui’s hands.
When your three starting attackers, who have been excellent all tournament, have shambolic outings, the analysis has to zoom out from the individuals and question the system—that set up by Monsieur Chelle. Morocco closed out the central passing lanes, dampening the threats posed by Iwobi’s passing. They kept Lookman closely monitored, limiting his activity in his favoured zone. Hence, service for Osimhen was non-existent, even the hopeful long balls and crosses, and Akor was forced to operate in less dangerous areas.
The game needed true wingers (Samuel Chukwueze) long before Chelle deigned to bring on Moses in the 83rd minute, despite loading the magazine several minutes before. The need for true wingers was particularly apparent when it was observed that Bruno Onyeamachi and Bright Osayi-Samuel were tasked with holding width—sterile possession, with Morocco locking down the danger in Nigeria’s lineup in the central areas.
Daniel Laryea embarrassing showing
Recall that the Super Eagles have been the most intense side in the competition. They have forced the most high turnovers in the competition. Being in the opponent's face is integral to how Chelle sets up his team to play, and that is nearly impossible to accomplish with a whistle-happy coach officiating as opposed to a lenient one — compare the intensity of the Premier League to LALIGA, vis-à-vis the refereeing leniency obtainable in both leagues.
Daniel Laryea, the Ghanaian official for the match, basically neutered the Super Eagles. Every tackle with meat, each time an Atlas Lions player falls or complains after being dispossessed, Laryea was quick to give the hosts a free kick. This meant the Super Eagles could not be as aggressive, an integral part of their game were frustrated, could not build momentum, and had counterpressing taken off the table as an avenue for chance creation.
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What’s worse? The threshold for what counted as a foul was not balanced for both teams. Moroccan players were allowed to be aggressive and got the advantage in 50-50s, and what's more? Survived nearly 120 minutes of an intense game without a single player seeing yellow (two for Nigeria, including an inexplicable one shown to Bassey).
While many have suggested impropriety, especially after similar refereeing complaints from Morocco’s quarter-final clash against Cameroon, one must be careful not to ascribe malice to what might be a case of incompetence. The noise in the stadium during the match could have possibly had a greater effect than whispers behind closed doors before kick-off.
Wilfred Ndidi’s absence
Many have, especially in the past two years, called for Wilfred Ndidi to be phased out (this writer included), given the emergence of Raphael Onyedika, who has a short but impactful CV which includes multiple ovation-worthy Champions League performances.
Against Morocco, the midfielder struggled. While it is knee-jerk to tender that as evidence Onyedika is not ready, it is instructive.
Ndidi missed the Morocco clash after picking up a yellow card against Algeria. The absence of energy, ball-winning ability, leadership and presence were sorely felt. While the Super Eagles were never truly overwhelmed, they lacked certain steel in midfield, which Ndidi was certain to have provided were he available for selection.
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There is also an argument to be made about Victor Osimhen, the captain on the day, not challenging Laryea enough, possibly due to recent criticisms he has faced over his expressive nature. Ndidi, wearing the band and untethered from the need to perform calmness might have been more forceful and efficient in getting more favourable calls for the Super Eagles.
Morocco’s extra man
The atmosphere at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium was absolutely electric. The home crowd made an excellent account of themselves, creating a hostile red-swarmed cauldron which the Super Eagles did not escape.
Nigeria’s best players Osimhen, Adams, Lookman and Alex Iwobi, were uncharacteristically poor or mediocre. And while the bigger causal factor remains Nigeria’s inefficient setup and the abysmal officiating, which affected their ability to generate momentum, the effect of the atmosphere cannot be ruled out.
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Players like Semi Ajayi and Raphael Onyedika particularly struggled under the pressure, while others like Akor Adams were totally off the boil.
Penalties
Nigeria will not win the AFCON nor participate in the next World Cup because of penalty shootouts. The poor set of kicks against the DR Congo during the World Cup qualifying playoffs and today against Morocco signals underpreparedness.
While it is impossible to recreate real match conditions in training, teams heading into knockout clashes can at least study the habits of their opponents. Nwabali's apparent arbitrary diving directions and the choice of kickers suggest a lack of readiness.