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The Senegal talisman has risen to the occasion over the last three matches, but MVP shouts discount a significant portion of the competition
On Wednesday night, something remarkable happened at the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON): Senegal scored three goals in a match for the second match running.
Take in their Round of 16 victory over Cape Verde, and the Teranga Lions have now recorded eight in their last three matches, a 700 per cent increase in goal output from the Group Stage when they only managed one.
While the pervasive results-based analysis is full of takes about the virtues of “peaking at the right time”, the accurate analysis is a little more mundane: Senegal played extremely poorly in the Group Stage, but have now improved in the knockouts. It is less to do with some foolproof tournament-winning strategy, and arguably more about settling on a system that suits their best player.
If Senegal win Sunday’s Final, there will be an almost universal clamour for Sadio Mane to be named the tournament’s Most Valuable Player (MVP). In fact, some have him out in front already. From a storyline perspective, it is difficult to argue against, as the journey Aliou Cisse’s side have undertaken to get this far is entirely about the Liverpool man.
In the opening two matches, Cisse fielded the 29-year-old as part of a front two but with licence to roam. It was easy to see why – Senegal lack creativity through the middle, so placing Mane in central zones seemed like a good idea. Indeed, it is a framework the Teranga Lions used for much of World Cup qualifying last year.
The upshot of it, however, was that Mane often struggled to find space between the lines, and ended up playing on the shoulder and chasing balls into the channels. This exacerbated the problem, making Senegal reliant on crosses and longer passes. It did not work.
Since reverting to a 4-3-3 and fielding Mane in his more familiar role on the left, his performances have improved, and so have Senegal’s.
Being the hinge on which the fortunes of the winning nation turns is obviously as good an argument as any for an MVP shout. However, should it be enough in this specific case?
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It is important to step away and consider the evidence with clarity.
Mane had a good first half against Zimbabwe, faded in the second period of that game but put away the winning penalty deep in stoppage time. Against Guinea and Malawi, he was kept in check with surprising ease by two teams of contrasting strength and did not make a decisive imprint on the proceedings in either encounter.
In the knockout stage though, he has been electric. He opened the scoring against Cape Verde despite a probable concussion, assisted two of Senegal’s three goals against Equatorial Guinea, and scored and assisted one goal apiece as they eased past Burkina Faso.
There is obviously something to be said for turning up when the stakes are highest, and there is greater appreciation now than there has ever been for the concept of the ‘clutch player’. Still though, how much should the appraisal of a tournament be weighted toward knockout stage performances?
At the end of the Group Stage, not even the most blinkered Senegal fan would have put Mane in their team of the round. That is sobering when you think about it on a mathematical level: in order to plead his MVP case, one would essentially have to discount 43% of his tournament play. It would be ludicrous to claim someone was the best in, say, a test when he only handed in 57% of the assessment, so why is this alright in football tournaments?
Sure, knockout stages obviously have higher stakes, both on account of their inherent jeopardy as well as the elevated quality of opposition. It is also important to state that Mane is hardly the first to be pushed for MVP on the back of his performances in the business end of a competition; famously, Zinedine Zidane was named the best player at the 2006 World Cup having essentially taken the Group Stage off.
However, the difference then was that France’s opposition in the latter stages was Spain, Brazil, Portugal and Italy – all four of those sides were in the top 15 in the FIFA rankings. Senegal have played Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea and Burkina Faso; with the greatest respect to these sides (and the Stallions, in particular, are a side with significant upside), they are hardly the creme de la creme of African national teams.
There is also the obvious: much as the knockout stages stand out more in the mind, in order to get that far, you actually need to accrue sufficient points in the Group Stage. To toss a significant portion of the competition out just seems shortsighted.
It also aptly furthers the message of this bloated AFCON format: that the Group Stage simply does not matter.
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